Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Figure 19: AI jobs impact What is your expectation for the impact of AI on global employment levels? Significant job loses Modest job loses No change Modest job gains Significant job gains Over the next 2 years 6 66 23 6 Over the next 10 years 26 31 11 26 6 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Compared to the April 2025 survey, respondents’ views over the long term have become more polarized. Previously, a third of respondents expected no change to global employment levels. This share fell to 11% in the latest survey. Meanwhile, the share of those expecting job losses increased from 47% in April 2025 to 57% in November 2025, and more than twice as many now expect significant job losses (26% compared to 11% in April). At the same time, nearly a third (32%) now expect modest or even significant job gains, compared to 19% in April 2025. Taken together, these developments suggest that 2026 and beyond will be decisive in determining whether AI becomes a broad-based productivity engine or remains a narrow, capital-intensive boom. The key economic variables to watch include model capabilities; diffusion into small and mid-sized firms, public services and low-income regions; patterns of task redesign and reskilling; and the evolution of energy, compute and security constraints.99 If adoption deepens in a way that creates new firms, professions and markets while spreading gains across geographies and income groups, AI could materially lift trend growth and help close long-standing development gaps. If, instead, it remains concentrated in a few large platforms, energy-hungry data centres, and a narrow cadre of highly skilled workers, the world may be left with high valuations, strained grids and heightened inequality without the equivalent productivity gains. The choices that firms and policy-makers make in the next few years about skills, regulation, infrastructure and safety will determine which of these futures becomes reality. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 25