Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Executive summary With 53% of chief economists expecting global economic conditions to weaken, 28% expecting no change and 19% expecting a stronger economy, the prospects for the global economy tilt towards the negative in the year ahead, albeit with improved sentiment compared to last year’s outlook. Drawing on a survey and dialogue with leading chief economists, the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook identifies downside risks in the form of inflated asset values, building debt pressures and intensifying geopolitical tensions, which are shifting trade and investment patterns. In the medium term, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) remains a key source of both opportunities and risks for the global economy. In a volatile environment, financial markets have maintained an upward trend, sparking debate about the sustainability of current valuations. Some economists have highlighted risks associated with asset bubbles and the possibility of abrupt corrections, while others point out the underlying profitability and real investment that distinguish these firms from previous speculative episodes. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold have regained appeal in an uncertain environment, while the trajectory of the US dollar remains a key question for global investors. The issue of debt, both public and private, has moved to the forefront as governments and corporations contend with the legacy of prolonged borrowing and managing elevated debt levels, prompting a reassessment of fiscal approaches. Areas such as defence, digital infrastructure and energy are expected to command larger shares of public budgets, reflecting the demands of a more unpredictable world and the imperatives of technological change. At the same time, the need to balance these priorities with other objectives is intensifying debates about the future direction of monetary and fiscal policies. Trade and investment flows are adapting to a new era characterized by strategic competition and evolving alliances. The US and China have de-escalated trade tensions, but many underlying frictions remain unresolved. As global supply chains adjust, regional and bilateral agreements are expected to multiply while countries work to secure access to essential technologies and resources. The outlook for global trade is mixed, with some regions positioned to benefit from emerging opportunities while others face challenges from protectionist measures and policy uncertainty. Foreign direct investment is also being redirected in response to these developments, resulting in varied prospects for major economies, according to chief economists. The rapid adoption of AI stands out as both a source of optimism and a catalyst for disruption. While the potential for significant productivity improvements is widely acknowledged, the pace and distribution of these benefits are expected to vary considerably across regions, industries and firm sizes. The impact on employment remains uncertain, with divergent views on the long term and modest disruption predicted in the short term. Regional growth trajectories reflect the complex interaction of these forces. The US is experiencing a surge in investment in AI and data centre infrastructure, fuelling hopes for a productivity revival even as questions persist about the scope and durability of these gains. China is managing a delicate balance between external demand and domestic pressures, leveraging technological innovation to maintain momentum. Europe faces a more subdued outlook, weighed down by demographic trends and the costs associated with conflict and fragmented regulatory frameworks, while regions such as South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific remain relative bright spots, supported by reform and integration. Other regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, are grappling with the dual challenges of debt and the need for structural transformation. The prevailing mood is one of vigilant anticipation, with the potential for rapid shifts in sentiment ever- present. The decisions made by governments, businesses and workers in the year ahead will be pivotal in determining whether this period of technological, geopolitical and economic change leads to short-term risk management only or lays the foundations for broad-based prosperity. As the world moves into 2026, the central challenge is to harness the relative resilience and continued creativity of the global economy to ensure that as many people as possible can access the rewards of the new economy. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 4