Economic risks outlook The January 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook opens on a cautiously brighter note than the past year. Although 53% of respondents still expect the global outlook to weaken in the year ahead, this is an improvement compared with the 72% who expected this outcome in September 2025. Yet even as the relative resilience of the global economy to shocks in the past year has brightened views of the year ahead, there also remain significant uncertainties. Trade and investment tensions remain a concern, while ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, though proceeding unevenly across geographies, industries and firms, raises hopes for meaningful productivity gains. Large downside risks remain in the form of inflated asset prices, increased levels of public debt and high geopolitical uncertainty. Chief economists surveyed frequently listed the potential of a bursting asset bubble as well as rising debt pressures among the most worrying potential macroeconomic developments. Chapter 1 takes a closer look at both sets of risks. Chapter 2 explores trade and investment in the global economy as well as regional growth and policy expectations. The third chapter explores the expected productivity impact from the adoption and deployment of AI, as well as the technology’s potential impacts on labour markets.1 May 2561 39 10050050100Share of respondents (%)Much weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger Sep 2511 17 69 3 Jan 2517 28 56 Sep 249 54 37 May 24174141 Jan 2423 20 53 3 May 2333 42 9 42Figure 1 : The global economic outlook Looking to the year ahead, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy? Jan 266472819 Source: Chief Economists Surveys and Outlooks. (May 2023–November 2025). Note: Chief Economists Surveys are conducted 7–8 weeks ahead of the launch of a new Chief Economists’ Outlook. In May’s edition, chief economists looked at the remainder of the year. In other editions, the outlook for the year ahead is given. The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 5

Chief Economists Outlook January 2026