Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Figure 2: Asset developments Looking at the year ahead, what do you expect to happen to the value of the following categories of assets? Significant decrease Decrease No change Increase Significant increase AI-related stocks in China 24 9 65 3 European stocks 21 21 59 Gold 31 23 43 3 Other stocks in the US 29 29 43 AI-related stocks in the US 9 43 9 40 Other stocks in China 24 45 30 US dollar 54 26 20 Cryptocurrencies 12 50 21 18 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025).Global markets in the past year have been driven by a concentrated US equity boom among AI leaders. Though still below the levels reached at the peak of the dot.com bubble, valuations of the top seven US tech firms (the “magnificent seven”, M7) have now reached the top 10% of their historical distributions.1 Equity gains have been largely concentrated in these tech firms: the M7 share in the total index market capitalization has grown to nearly 35%, from about 20% in November 2022.2 Yet other assets also saw remarkable developments. While bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies slumped, gold has surged 60% this year on the back of high uncertainty, supported by safe-haven demand, including from central banks – its best annual performance since 1979.3 Meanwhile, the US dollar halted the depreciation path it had entered in April, posting gains against other major currencies.4Asset valuations Chief Economists’ Outlook January 6