Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

In the year ahead, a narrow majority of 52% of chief economists surveyed expect AI-related stocks in the US to decline, with 9% anticipating a significant decline. However, 40% of respondents expect further gains, highlighting the uncertainty of the current situation. Compared to AI stocks, other stocks in the US are viewed somewhat more favourably, although a majority of 58% also expect values to plateau or decline. Concerns about valuations in the US contrast with exuberance about AI-related stocks in China. Over two-thirds of chief economists surveyed anticipate increases in value in the year ahead. On other Chinese stocks, respondents are split, with 45% anticipating no change in either direction. Following the strong performance of European stocks in 2025, a majority of 59% of respondents expect further increases in the year ahead.5 While a majority of 54% expect gold to have reached its peak, 46% of respondents expect its value to increase even further in the year ahead. World Bank analysis attributes the 2025 surge mainly to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty, alongside robust central bank purchases that have significantly increased their share of total demand compared with a decade ago.6 The precious metal traditionally fulfils a portfolio diversification role and may continue to fulfil this role again in the year ahead.7 When it comes to cryptocurrencies, 62% anticipate further decreases in value in the year ahead. After a market crash on 10 October exposed weaknesses in the wider cryptocurrency infrastructure, bitcoin lost a quarter of its value in just two months.8 Furthermore, a majority of 54% expect the US dollar to resume its downward trajectory. A depreciating dollar affects both borrowers’ and foreign investors’ balance sheets and could ease financial conditions for emerging markets by lowering debt servicing burdens.9 Valuations and investor behaviour raise the spectre of asset bubbles. According to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) research, US equities  and gold exhibit patterns historically associated with bubble episodes, surging in lockstep for the first time in the last 50 years.10 The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest Financial Stability Review also highlights “stretched” valuations of major US tech stocks, driven by fear of missing out, and warns that negative surprises, including political shocks around the Federal Reserve, could trigger sharp corrections.11 The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October Global Financial Stability Report adds that rallies centred on the magnificent seven significantly raise the risk that disappointment in a few firms could reverberate across global equity and bond markets.12 At the same time, there are credible arguments against viewing the AI boom as a bubble, which temper the case for a downward correction. Unlike the dot.com era, today’s leading AI firms are already highly profitable, with strong earnings growth underpinning rising share prices and significant real investment in data centres and infrastructure.13 Price-to-earnings multiples for top AI names sit at levels that assume multiple years of uninterrupted growth, but remain below some peaks reached during the dot.com bubble.14 The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and IMF both note that AI- related capital spending has materially supported US growth in 2025, even after stripping out front- loaded activity linked to tariffs.15 Figure 3: Breadth of impact In the case of a significant decrease, what is your expectation of the breadth of the impact on the global economy? Gold 11 89 AI-related stocks in China 11 89 Other stocks in China 17 83 European stocks 17 83 Cryptocurrencies 29 71 Other stocks in the US 63 37 US dollar 66 34 AI-related stocks in the US 74 26 Share of respondents (%)Widespread Contained Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook January 7