Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Chief economists were asked to assess the breadth of impact of a significant decrease in the value of certain assets on the global economy. The centrality of the US in the global economy stands out.16 Almost three-quarters of respondents (74%) expect a significant decrease in the value of US AI assets to have widespread impacts on the global economy, while a quarter expect it to be more contained. To a lesser extent (63%), this is also the case for other stocks in the US. Some estimates suggest that a stock market crash in the US could generate potential losses up to $35 trillion.17 Two-thirds of chief economists surveyed also foresee widespread impacts should the US dollar decrease significantly in value. When it comes to gold, cryptocurrencies or stocks in China or Europe, the majority anticipate the impact of a significant decrease to be contained. Chief economists were also asked to assess the timeframe of the expected impact. A significant decrease in the value of the US dollar is expected by a majority of respondents (56%) to have a long- lasting impact. All other assets, including AI-related stocks in the US, are anticipated by the majority of respondents to have short-lived impacts on the global economy. Figure 4: Timeframe of impact In the case of a significant decrease, what is your expectation of the timeframe of the impact on the global economy? Long lasting US dollar 44 56 AI-related stocks in the US 59 41 Other stocks in the US 68 32 Cryptocurrencies 74 26 AI-related stocks in China 82 18 Gold 82 18 European stocks 88 12 Other stocks in China 91 9 Share of respondents (%)Short-lived Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Chief economists were asked to assess the likelihood of a range of macroeconomic crises risks in advanced and emerging economies in the year ahead, including sovereign debt crises, currency crises, corporate debt crises, banking crises and household debt crises. Overall, none of the potential crises were considered to be likely by a majority of the surveyed chief economists. However, all risks were assessed to carry a higher likelihood in emerging markets compared to advanced economies. In advanced economies, views were split equally between those who considered sovereign debt crises likely, unlikely and uncertain. In emerging markets, almost half (47%) saw them as a likely outcome while only 9% saw it as unlikely in the year ahead. Global public debt stood at a record $102 trillion in 2024 and is projected to rise about 100% of GDP (gross domestic product) by 2029.18 Although only accounting for less than a third of global debt, levels in developing countries are growing twice as fast since 2010.19 While sovereign bond markets in advanced economies increasingly rely on price-sensitive investors, growing dependence on domestic sources of financing is creating new vulnerabilities in emerging markets.20 Debt and spending Chief Economists’ Outlook January 8