Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Figure 5: Macroeconomic risks Looking at the year ahead, how do you assess the likelihood of the following macroeconomic risks? Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Sovereign debt crises Advanced economies 3 33 33 28 3 Emerging markets 9 44 47 Currency crises Advanced economies 11 53 17 19 Emerging markets 12 47 41 Corporate debt crises Advanced economies 3 33 44 17 3 Emerging markets 24 56 21 Banking crises Advanced economies 6 50 31 14 Emerging markets 32 44 24 Household debt crises Advanced economies 11 56 25 8 Emerging markets 3 32 56 9 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Currency crises were viewed as unlikely or highly unlikely in advanced economies by 64% of respondents. Measures of US dollar volatility recently declined to levels last seen before the last US presidential election.21 On the other hand, for emerging markets, this share drops to only 12%, compared to 41% who viewed it as a likely possibility. A damaging run on the Argentinian peso in October was a reminder of how quickly currency crises could manifest.22 Views on corporate debt crises were mixed. In advanced economies, 36% viewed them as unlikely or highly unlikely, compared to 20% who viewed them as likely or highly likely. In late September 2025, US car parts company First Brands filed for bankruptcy, but contagion remained limited.23 In emerging markets, 24% saw them as unlikely compared to 21% who considered them a likely outcome in the year ahead. Banking crises in advanced economies were viewed as unlikely by most respondents (56%). In emerging markets, this share stood at 32%, compared to 24% of those who viewed them as likely. Lebanon’s ongoing turmoil serves as a reminder of the potential dangers of a banking crisis.24 In advanced economies, household debt crises were seen as unlikely by 56% and highly unlikely by 11% of respondents. In both advanced economies and emerging markets, less than 10% of respondents considered household debt crises a likely possibility in the year ahead. 9 Chief Economists’ Outlook January