Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

17Chief Economists Outlook 38 Ipsos. (2025). 39 The Economist. (2025h). 40 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025b).A majority of chief economists surveyed (55%) expect weak growth in Latin America and the Caribbean for the remainder of 2025. The region continues to face tighter global financial conditions, slowing demand from key trading partners and persistent geopolitical tensions, all of which are weighing on investment and consumer confidence. In March 2025, consumer sentiment in Latin American countries fell sharply.38 Against this backdrop, the IMF projects that, after a moderate expansion of 2.4% in 2024, regional growth will slow to 2.0% this year, following a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points attributable to a confluence of external shocks, most notably the imposition of new tariffs by the US. Argentina stands out, with signs that a series of fiscal and structural reforms are starting to stabilize the economy.39 The IMF expects Argentina to grow by 5.5% this year, with a slowdown in inflation to 35.9% in 2025 and 14.5% in 2026.40 Fiscal space remains constrained in many economies in the region, limiting policy-makers’ ability to cushion shocks or support growth. Over two-thirds of chief economists surveyed (68%) expect fiscal policy to remain broadly unchanged. Inflationary pressures are easing in much of the region but remain a concern in a number of countries, particularly where structural imbalances persist. Across the region as a whole, 38% of respondents expect inflation to remain high, while 55% anticipate moderate levels. Monetary policy is expected to remain either unchanged (50%) or become looser (39%), according to the surveyed chief economists. Africa and the Middle East Figure 15. Middle East and North Africa in the remainder of 2025 Economic growth Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policyVery low Low Moderate High Very high Looser Unchanged Tighter Looser Unchanged Tighter28 59 22 22 38 6274 41950 22 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April).