Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

18Chief Economists Outlook 41 Millard, R. (2025). 42 Al Omran, A. (2025). 43 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025b).44 International Energy Agency (IEA); International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD); World Bank; World Health Organization (WHO). (2024).The chief economists surveyed remain divided on the growth outlook for the Middle East and North Africa, with half expecting moderate growth in the region for the remainder of 2025, while 22% anticipate strong growth and 28% expect weak growth. Recent developments in the oil market have added to the region’s challenges: in April 2025, oil prices fell below $60 per barrel and have remained near three-year lows, putting additional pressure on the public finances of oil-exporting economies.41 Many countries in the region continue to navigate the dual challenges of fluctuating energy prices and ongoing efforts to diversify their economies.42 Across the region, inflationary pressures are gradually easing but remain above pre- COVID-19 pandemic levels. Fiscal space is limited, requiring policy-makers to carefully balance growth and stability objectives. Most chief economists surveyed expect inflation to remain moderate (59%) and fiscal policy to remain broadly unchanged (74%). Figure 16. Sub-Saharan Africa in the remainder of 2025 Economic growth Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policyVery low Low Moderate High Very high Looser Unchanged Tighter Looser Unchanged Tighter10 56 11 19 33 63 478 43329 45 16 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2025, April). In Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. A majority of chief economists surveyed (61%) expect moderate or strong growth. The IMF projects the region to expand at a solid pace of 3.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.43 Nigeria, one of the region’s largest economies, faces distinct challenges. Its economy is constrained by persistent structural bottlenecks, security concerns and ongoing difficulties in the energy sector. Nigeria also has the largest number of people without electricity in the world, highlighting both its substantial infrastructure investment needs and the extent of potential that could be unlocked.44 Across Sub-Saharan Africa, inflation is gradually receding from recent highs, with chief economists expecting moderate to high levels (89%). Food insecurity and external vulnerabilities remain significant concerns. Significant majorities of respondents expect fiscal and monetary policy to remain unchanged (78% and 63%, respectively).