6Chief Economists Outlook Amid this turbulence, the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI) is adding another layer of complexity and opportunity to the global economic landscape. While only 45% of chief economists expect AI to be commercially disruptive in 2025, a similar proportion of respondents expect AI to add up to five percentage points to global GDP over the next decade, while a third expect even greater gains. This would be a significant boost to global economic activity given current sluggish growth rates. Innovation and augmentation were highlighted as key channels through which AI will drive growth. However, the labour market outlook is mixed, with 47% expecting net job losses and only 19% foreseeing net gains, highlighting the efforts needed to ensure that AI is not a short-term boost to the global economy followed by a longer-term contraction in demand and living standards but a win-win scenario for workers and business. Businesses and governments are being forced to adapt rapidly to the twin challenge of surging economic volatility and rapid technological transformation. All of the chief economists surveyed expect firms to reorganize sourcing and logistics to reduce tariff exposure, while a large majority anticipate delays in strategic decision- making and investment. Respondents also emphasized the importance of increasing organizational agility, diversifying supply chains and reskilling workforces to integrate AI. At a time of profound disruption, organizations can position themselves for resilience and expansion by aligning technological innovation with a clear understanding of the broader economic landscape.

Chief Economists Outlook May 2025