Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

5Chief Economists Outlook Executive summary The May 2025 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook is published at a time of extraordinary volatility and uncertainty. Since the beginning of the year, the global economic outlook has darkened. In the World Economic Forum’s latest survey of chief economists, conducted in the first half of April at the height of recent policy developments, there was unanimity that the condition of the global economy is set to weaken considerably. Notably, 79% of chief economists surveyed viewed dramatic changes to US policy as part of a long-term structural shift rather than a short-term disruption, a marked increase from 61% in late 2024. Trade policy has been at the centre of spiralling economic uncertainty, with the announcement in early April of unprecedented increases in bilateral tariffs between the US and many other countries. Most have since been paused for 90 days, which has led to a significant easing of short-term concerns, particularly in financial markets. However, underlying uncertainty about US economic policy persists, and it remains to be seen what will happen when the pauses elapse. Against this backdrop, it is difficult to gauge the economic outlook with great certainty. Respondents to the chief economists’ survey were clear that overall growth prospects were weakening, with the shift in trajectory being most pronounced in the US, where the majority of chief economists expected weak or very weak growth for the remainder of 2025, alongside rising inflation and a weakening dollar. In Europe, while growth remains subdued, respondents pointed to emerging signs of improvement, driven by expansionary fiscal policy and continued monetary easing. China is also pursuing fiscal expansion in an effort to bolster growth, but the chief economists were divided on whether it would reach its target of 5% GDP (gross domestic product) growth this year, given a range of both external and domestic economic challenges. Looking more broadly at the economic impact of recent developments, the chief economists were largely aligned in their assessment that higher tariffs and persistent trade tensions would fuel inflation and suppress trade volumes, and persistent uncertainty would inflict significant economic damage on the global economy, including through paralysed decision-making and heightened risks of policy miscoordination.