Chief Economists Outlook September 2025

Taken together, these differences in economic enablers and inhibitors, set against a backdrop of global disruption, point to a likely widening of global growth gaps. More than half of the chief economists surveyed (56%) expect greater divergence between advanced and developing economies over the next three years.Greater convergence Unchanged Greater divergence Convergence 12 32 56Figure 23 : Economic convergence Looking at the next three years, what are your expectations for economic convergence between developing and advanced economies? Share of respondents (%) Highly unlikely Unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Likely Highly likely Increased global health risks 3 13 47 38 Increased migration flows 6 16 48 29 Increased global security risks 6 19 59 16 Increased global climate risks 6 25 41 28 Divergence of advanced and developing economies 10 23 48 19 Increase in South-South cooperation 6 10 23 52 10 Emergence of new development pathways 7 23 23 33 13 Reduced global growth 10 23 30 30 7 Reduced growth in developing economies 10 10 45 19 16 More private-sector development finance 6 29 29 32 3 Increased risk of a global debt crisis 7 20 40 27 7Figure 24 : Impacts of reducing developing aid If official development aid is significantly reduced in the coming years, how likely are the following outcomes? Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Source: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook September 23