Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

CLIMATE TRENDS & PRO JECTIONS | CITY OF ASHLAND, OREGON | FINAL REPORT | 11 Future Projections The range of future changes in annual average temperature in Ashland is 2°F to 6°F for the 2050s and 3° F to 11°F for the 2080s , using all model s and both emissions scenarios (see Table 2). The multi -model mean projects an increase of about 8°F by the 2080s under the high emissions scenario compared to the histori c baseline (1950 -2005) ( see Figure 3). Warming occurs year round and is more pronounced during the summer months of July, August, and September ( Figure 3). Globally, the Earth’s climate will continue to warm with continued greenhouse gas emissions. By the end of the 21st century relative to the 1850 -1900 average, it is likely that global warming will exceed 2.7°F under RCP4.5 and exceed 3.6°F under RCP8.5. By mid -century (2046 -2065 relative to 1986 -2005) global warming is “likely ” to be in the range of 1.6°F to 3. 6°F for RCP4.5 and 2.5°F to 4.7°F for RCP8.5 (IPCC, 2013 ). It is important to note that the IPCC’s “likely” range does not include the full range of models shown for the Ashland projections.