Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

CLIMATE TRENDS & PRO JECTIONS | CITY OF ASHLAND, OREGON | FINAL REPORT | 10 Average Temperature Historical Trends The annual mean temperature in Ashland warmed at a rate of 2.5°F per century between 1893 and 2014 (see Figure 2). This local warming is greater than th e observed warming averaged over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), which was about 1.0°F to 1.4°F per century over the period 1901 -2012 (Aba tzoglou, Rupp, & Mote, 2014) . It has been shown that the rise in greenhouse gases was largely responsible for this PNW temperature trend (Abatzoglou et al., 2014) . Globally, the Earth’s surface warmed about 1.5°F between 1880 and 2012 (IPCC, 2013). Figure 2. Annual mean temperature in Ashland has increased from 1893 to 2014 at a rate of 2.5°F per century . In Ashland, t he mean, minimum, and maximum temperature increased year -round with significant (>95%) trends, except for the maximum temperature trend in spring (see Table 3). M inimum temperatures in Ashland have increased faster than maximum tempe ratures, as was the case for most stations in the PNW . Warming was most pronounced in Ashland during winter , with a 3.9°F per century rate of increase in minimum temperature. Average PNW warming was also largest in winter (Abatzoglou et al., 2014) . Table 3. Annual and seasonal trends in maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and precipitation from 1893 to 2014 for Ashland. An asterisk denotes a statistically significant trend at the 95% level. Maximum Temperature (°F per century) Minimum Temperature (°F per century) Mean Temperature (°F per century) Precipitation (Inches per century) Annual 1.4* 3.6* 2.5* -0.9 Winter 2.1* 3.9* 3.0* -0.9 Spring 0.7 3.5* 2.1* 0.5 Summer 1.3* 3.9* 2.6* 0.03 Fall 1.1* 3.0* 2.1* -0.4 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 200048 50 52 54Ashland Ann ual Mean T emperature Year°Ftrend: 2.5 °F/centur y