Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Appendix A Modelling framework – from orbital population to economic impact To effectively map the evolution of the orbital debris environment and its economic impacts for the space sector, this report incorporates analysis from multiple studies conducted in collaboration with the Saudi Space Agency, LeoLabs and Novaspace. These analyses build on one another to provide an evidence- based estimate of the economic impact of orbital debris. The orbital population model simulates the growth of operational satellites, derelicts and fragments in LEO (2025–2040). Its collision probability outputs feed into the economic valuation, which quantifies the resulting cost burden to the global space economy. Figure 5 illustrates the inputs and process that were used to reach the final analyses. Further details on the methodologies for the orbital population model and economic valuations can be found in appendices B and C. Mapping orbital debris environment and economic impacts FIGURE 5 Current state of debris as of September 2025 – Operational satellites – Inactive satellites + rocket bodies – Fragments Projection (5-year increments) – New satellites launched – New abandoned rocket bodies – New failed satellites – New generated fragmentsAssumptions – Object size – Mass – Motion Calculated probabilities of collision (PC) – Statistical calculation – Poisson distribution – Describe rare events in physicsOutput: PCs – PC(HNT) – PC(LNT) – PC(Cat)Economic impact model (Novaspace) – PC x estimated financial consequences – Scenarios 1 and 2 – Applies discountsPopulation model (SSA/LeoLabs) Spatial density of objects in 10 km altitude bands from 300 to 2,000 km Output: Expected- value losses Two ranges dependent on uncertainty scenarios (unadjusted and adjusted) Model Computation Result/output Population model inputs Input Source: Centre for Space Futures, 2025 Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 24