Clear Orbit Secure Future 2026

Space debris consists primarily of defunct satellites, abandoned rocket bodies and fragments from past explosions or collisions. While thousands of these objects are tracked, millions of smaller pieces remain untrackable yet capable of inflicting significant damage. For example, debris fragments as small as 5 mm can damage a satellite, while debris larger than 1 cm can terminate a satellite’s mission. These non-trackable objects, typically smaller than 10 cm, outnumber catalogued fragments by many orders of magnitude and pose the main debris threat to spacecraft reliability. Debris populations and risk findings published for the first time in this report rely on an orbital population model developed by the Saudi Space Agency and LeoLabs in collaboration with the Centre for Space Futures. The low Earth orbit (LEO) population model functions as a digital twin of the orbital environment, a simulation that projects how the number and type of objects in orbit will change from 2025 to 2040 and what risks they pose to spacecraft operations. A detailed description of the methodology and assumptions behind this model can be found in Appendix B. Based on these projections, this report aims to answer an important question: “What is the likelihood that a given satellite will be struck by an object of a certain size within a year?” This is projected by calculating the probability of collision using established statistical methods, applying representative assumptions for object size, mass and motion. This translates the physical population of debris into a clear percentage  of risk. The results reveal that collision risks are not evenly distributed across orbital altitudes. There are three clusters that already represent particularly dangerous altitude zones – around 775 km, 840 km and 1,000 km – where dense collections of heavy derelicts and older fragment clouds overlap. If no further mitigation occurs, the probability of a serious collision in these clusters by 2032 is estimated at 8%, 6% and 29%, respectively . Below 600 and 700 km, atmospheric drag naturally clears debris, but above that altitude, fragments can persist for centuries. This persistence explains why the 800–1,000 km altitude band has been labelled the “bad neighbourhood” for LEO. The findings are based on a clear set of foundational assumptions, detailed in Appendix B. These assumptions create a conservative, business-as- usual baseline. For example, the model assumes that satellite operators will become more compliant with disposal guidelines over time and that no active debris removal missions will affect the debris population before 2040. Together, these assumptions define the model’s boundaries while illustrating how behavioural and policy choices directly shape both the physical and economic trajectory of space activity. Debris levels of intact derelicts and fragments (2025–2040), showcasing the peak fragment spike getting worse around 800 kmFIGURE 1 310 560 810 1,060 1,310 1,560 1,810Intact derelicts and fragments: 2025 vs. 2040Spatial density (per km3) Altitude bins (km)0.E+001.E-082.E-083.E-084.E-085.E-086.E-087.E-08 Derelicts 2040 Fragments 2040 Derelicts 2025 Fragments 2025 Space debris consists primarily of defunct satellites, abandoned rocket bodies and fragments from past explosions or collisions. Source: Saudi Space Agency and LeoLabs Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris 7