Weather extremes are a major driver of food insecurity.19 According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 28.9% of the global population – 2.33 billion people – experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, across both developing and developed countries.20 Beyond nutrition and health, food insecurity affects social equity, causes political instability and hampers economic development. Food systems and climate change share a paradoxical relationship. From one perspective, the food value chain is responsible for about one third of greenhouse gas emissions.21 The sector consumes around 70% of the world’s freshwater and uses 50% of all habitable land, often at the expense of forests and native grasslands, further exacerbating climate change.22 From another perspective, food systems are extremely vulnerable to climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature, pollinator health, sunlight and soil conditions. Under the current warming trajectory, rice, maize and soybean yields could fall 24% by 2030, while wheat yields may rise by 17%.23 Soil erosion could also lead to a 10% loss in crop production by 2050,24 reducing the amount of arable land, while global crop yields could be reduced by 20%-40% annually due to plant pests and diseases.25Extreme weather events drive up food prices Extreme weather events have already taken a toll on agricultural production. In early 2024, droughts slashed olive production in Spain by 40%, driving olive oil prices up by 27% over the past year.26 Similarly, after extreme weather hit cocoa farms in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, chocolate producers faced a 400% surge in cocoa prices.27 These extreme events also trigger short-term crises that erode communities’ and countries’ food security, with cascading impacts on regional stability. Consider the global wheat market in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Both are major suppliers of wheat, but the war limited their ability to export the commodity. India, France and Argentina were expected to bridge the gap but a heatwave in India shrank wheat production there, leading the government to temporarily ban exports. Then, a heatwave in France and a drought in Argentina further reduced global wheat supplies. Panic ensued, with wheat prices shooting up by nearly 110% over 18 months.281.1 Food systems Under the current warming trajectory, rice, maize and soybean yields could fall 24% by 2030, while wheat yields may rise by 17%. Food prices have seen excessive volatility since 2020 FIGURE 7 Source: FAO.29Commodity name Sep ’18 Mar ’18 Sep ’17 Mar ’19 Sep ’19 Mar ’20 Sep ’20 Mar ’21 Sep ’21 Mar ’22 Sep ’22 Mar ’23 Sep ’23 Mar ’24 Sep ’24 Day of Date Price volatilities Low volatility Moderate volatility Excessive volatilityHardwheatStart of Covid-19Russian invasion of UkraineHottest months in human history Softwheat Maize Rice Soybean Cocoa Coffee Cotton Sugar Climate Adaptation: Unlocking Value Chains with the Power of Technology 13

Climate Adaptation Unlocking Value Chains with the Power of Technology 2025