Climate Foresight 2025

Figure 12 - Stakeholder Analysis Matrix: Voluntary Carbon Markets As a certifier, LuxCS can leverage relationships with currently low-power but high-interest stakeholders to enable their interests to be enacted, potentially adding legitimacy, and moving those actors from the subject quadrant into the player quadrant. By transforming subjects and bystanders into allies, LuxCS can increase its power and influence while achieving virtuous interests. As carbon mar kets a re facing unprecedented scrutiny, beneficial alignments with marginalized stakeholders can mitigate reputational risk. To understand the next-order implications of LuxCS’ operation, we performed a Futures Wheel exercise (see Glenn 1972) to identify future impacts following the successful adaptation of the company’s protocol. To generate these, the initial source of change was chosen as “LuxCS scales and its standards become so pervasive that every VCM ado pts s uch approaches.” From this point, the strongest first-order impacts of this change were explored. After that, second-order effects created by the first-order consequences were identified, considering Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 32 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025