Climate Foresight 2025

majority” market of customers in Brazil (lower-middle-class to middle-class consumers). Leverage Points for Effective Change Demonstrated by LuxCS In addition to the virtuous inflection point presented by blockchain and democratized climate foresight, LuxCS’ model presents an important shift in mindsets towards climate foresight. This aligns with the arguments of Meadows (1999), O’Brien (2018) and Inayatullah (2008), whoemphasize the role of shifting mental mo dels and understandings of systems in order to drive longer-term systemic change (see Figure 4, Figure 5, and Figure 6). Access to carbon markets shares the burden of climate responsibility with low-influence actors, overcoming the perception that only high-influence actors can mitigate carbon emissions. Per the argument of Meadows (1999), there is much power in shifting mental models as an avenue for mitigating carbon emissions. Other levers for change driven by L uxCS i nclude observable patterns and trends such as greater transparency and disclosures. In turn, this promotes accountability, trust, and alignment through the power of blockchain, all demonstrated as levers of change in Figure 5 (see Meadows 1999).Per the argument of O’Brien (2018), democratized technology such as blockchain offers practical, political, and personal avenues for decarbonization. The LuxCS protocol helps overcome the administrative burden of verifying c arbon credits through its more cost effective methods. Furthermore, LuxCS promotes a more streamlined and clear structure of information flows on the political dimension, reducing information asymmetries present in less democratized carbon markets. LuxCS: Moving Beyond Point Solutions To understand how LuxCS could be a catalyst to systems-level change, a Stakeholder AnalysisMatrix was performed using the Cairns and Wright (2018) framework (Figure 1 2). Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 31 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025