Defossilizing Industry Scaling-up CCU 2025

Current carbon capture capacity in development and cost estimates of global CCU-viable CO2 sourcesFIGURE 2 Notes: – Mtpa = million tonnes per annum. – Volume assumptions: 90% capture rate; biogenic and/or unavoidable emissions shown where possible. – Cost assumptions: final investment decision (FID) two years before operation; based in USA; 1 Mtpa capacity; no transport and storage; no policy support; current technology (other than DAC); 2030 DAC costs reflect range of valued Wood Mackenzie DAC projects; 2040 DAC costs follow expected cost reduction trajectory. Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens Carbon.0102030405060708090100Volume (Mtpa) Steel Cement & limePaper & pulpWaste Biomass to energyEthanol DACCost of capture ($/tonne CO2) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Volume range 2030 Volume range 2040 Cost range 2030 Cost range 2040 Forecasting utilization volumes is challenging, given the diversity of CCU contexts and the extent to which CO2 destined for sequestration could be reprioritized for feedstocks. Projections vary across studies, due to differing assumptions and scenarios – including the following:11,12,13,14 –In its 2019 study, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected between 250 and 878 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of CO2 utilization by 2060.15 –In its subsequent 2020 Special Report on Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage, IEA projected that 189 Mtpa by 2030, 369 Mtpa by 2050 and 877 Mtpa by 2070 of captured CO2 would have to be utilized in line with its Sustainable Development Scenario. This represents roughly 9% of all captured CO2 within the scenario.16 –In 2024, the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) forecast that between 430 and 840 Mtpa of CO2 could be utilized by 2040.17 However, in contrast to these forecasts, the project pipeline of investments in CCU remains very low, due to systemic market barriers currently facing the sector, with only around 21 Mtpa in development to 2040 (see Figure 3).18369 Mtpa by 2050 Volume of CO2 that must be utilized in line with IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario Defossilizing Industry: Considerations for Scaling-up Carbon Capture and Utilization Pathways 7