1.2 Cost requirements by pathway Each SAF pathway comes with distinct capital expenditure (CapEx) drivers, largely influenced by the complexity and maturity of the technology and the required infrastructure. Figure 5 provides a boxplot overview of the estimated CapEx of greenfield production facilities, based on a survey of project developers. While the early stage of production makes some of these numbers uncertain, as expected HEFA appears to be the least CapEx- intense pathway, followed by Alcohol-to-Jet and Gasification-Fischer Tropsch. Power-to-Liquid remains the most expensive SAF pathway today. Overview of CapEx requirements for greenfield SAF refinery, by pathway ($/tonne) FIGURE 5 CapEx in dollars per metric tonne of installed capacity Average cost for 500,000 tonne SAF/HVO facility HEFA AtJ G-FT PtL~$0.7bn~$1.5k ~$2.2bn ~$3.6bn ~$6.3bn0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 ~$4.3k ~$7.2k ~$12.7k Minimum Average Maximum Notes: 1. HVO = Hydro-treated vegetable oil. 2. Pricing for PtL is approximate, given lack of reliable datapoints. Source: Kearney analysis and disclosure from ~50 SAF bio-refineries with minimum capacity of 80kt. This analysis has predominantly focused on the main SAF production pathways currently being developed and approved for SAF use in aircraft. To reach sufficient scale, it is important to continue to look at alternative solutions within a pathway as well as completely new pathways. For instance, to expand existing pathways further, such as HEFA, research is being done to overcome feedstock constraints. Examples include Brazilian energy company Acelen Renewables looking into macauba palm oil and GAFT, a Dutch company specializing in green air fuel technology, converting feedstocks using electrolysis and fermentation. Additional production pathways are also being developed, with companies such as Firefly Green Fuels planning to use hydrothermal liquefaction to transform sewage waste feedstock into SAF. As it is difficult to estimate costs for these nascent technologies, they have not been included in this analysis. It is also worth noting that securing ASTM certification for SAF use in aircraft will be an essential condition to attract investment. HEFA HEFA is expected to remain the most efficient pathway for SAF production until 2030, due to its technological maturity and relatively moderate capital investment requirements compared to other SAF pathways. Its efficiency is largely attributed to the use of established hydro-processing technology, which has been employed in the production of most refined fuels for decades, including renewable diesel and jet fuels. HEFA is expected to remain the most efficient pathway for SAF production until 2030, due to its technological maturity and relatively moderate capital investment requirements. 10 Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2025