Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2025
Page 9 of 44 · WEF_Financing_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuels_2025.pdf
Overview of SAF capacity ramp-up needed between 2024 and 2030 FIGURE 3
Installed capacity 2024 Capacity expansion
of operational facilitiesConfirmed capacity
from projects post-FIDCapacity still
requiring FID2030 demandTargeted
Mandated4.41.35.65.8
11.8 Mt /a 17.1 Mt /a
5.3 Mt /a
Note: Mt/a = million tonnes per annum. FID = final investment decision.
Sources: Kearney analysis, S&P Platts, International Energy Agency (IEA), airline announcements. Capacity figures include co-processing.
Based on stakeholder consultation and rate of
deployment to date, it can take, on average, four to
six years for a greenfield SAF production facility to
reach its full capacity; consequently this 5.8 Mt of
capacity would need to pass FID stage by the end
of 2026. Alternatively, reducing the production slate
of renewable diesel, currently more profitable and
highly sought-after, or opting for the retrofitting of
existing fossil fuel refineries could provide a capacity
boost, but increasing demand for biofuels in road
transport may lead project developers to different
revenue optimization strategies.
Regional imbalances will also need to be
mitigated. In Europe in particular, current installed
capacity will account for 1.7 Mt of annual SAF production. This is only one third of the 5.1 Mt of
expected mandated demand driven by ReFuel
EU and the UK. As a result, Europe will need to
either significantly expand local capacity or rely
heavily on imports, most likely from the Americas
or Asia.
As of August 2024, a total of 12 Mt of SAF capacity
had been announced in the pipeline. To bridge the
demand-supply gap identified above, nearly half of
this announced capacity would need to pass FID
soon. Whereas HEFA currently accounts for 99% of
installed capacity, HEFA only represents ~60% of
the announced, non-operational capacity, followed
by AtJ and PtL each at ~15% and G-FT at 10%
(see Figure 4).
Overview of currently announced SAF capacity (pre-FID) FIGURE 4
Additional announced
capacity, in Mt /a
Total
12 Mt /a7 Mt 2 Mt 1 Mt 2 Mt
HEFA AtJ G-FT PtL
Notes: HEFA = hydro-processed esters and fatty acids, AtJ = Alcohol-to-Jet, G-FT = Gasification-Fischer Tropsch, PtL = Power-to-Liquid.
Sources: Kearney analysis based on market engagement, S&P Global Biofuels Value Chain Service.6
Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels
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