Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2025

1 The first step in quantifying the financing needs of the future SAF industry is assessing the scale of production volumes required to meet SAF demand from airlines. Demand: airline commitments By 2030, the expected demand for SAF is estimated to amount to around 16 Mt/a (million tonnes per annum), based on current demand commitments from airlines.1 This represents ~4-5% of total jet fuel demand in 2030 (~370 Mt).2 Assuming this demand translates into supply, and depending on the lifecycle emissions of the SAF used in 2030 and the complementary savings achieved through greater engine efficiency, the global vision agreed at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) for a 5% reduction in the carbon footprint of international aviation by 2030 may thus be achieved. There is, however, significant disparity in how this commitment might be met across regions and airlines. More than 80% of this demand is driven by 15 airlines. Cargo carriers such as FedEx, DHL and UPS have the highest SAF targets by 2030, with the most ambitious passenger airlines sticking to an average target of 10% SAF by 2030, well aligned with the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow ambition. Of these, only three airline groups (Air France-KLM, DHL and IAG) were already consuming SAF for more than 1% of their total fuel demand in 2023, with DHL leading the way at 3% of their 2023 fuel consumption (see spotlight below).1.1 Capacity requirements to meet 2030 demand for SAFCapital requirements to meet 2030 demand Total estimated CapEx required to fulfil demand for SAF by 2030 ranges between $19 billion and $45 billion, depending on the technology pathways deployed. By 2030, the expected demand for SAF is estimated to amount to around 16 million tonnes per year, based on current demand commitments from airlines. DHL has a commitment to reduce GHG emissions to below 29 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt/CO2e) by 2030. This represents a 42% reduction in scope 1 and 2 emissions and 25% in scope 3 emissions, compared to its 2021 baseline of 39 Mt/CO2e. An important part of the company’s emissions reduction strategy is to use more SAF – consequently, DHL has set an ambitious goal to reach 30% SAF blend by 2030. In 2023, DHL used 72,000 tonnes (72kt) of SAF, which represented ~3% of their total fuel consumption – making them the number one SAF consumer in absolute terms. To achieve their SAF ambition, DHL has partnered with Air France-KLM Martinair Cargo to purchase ~25kt of SAF, with bp and Neste to buy ~630kt of SAF up to 2026, and with World Energy to secure ~530kt of SAF between 2023 and 2030. Several airlines focus more on overall carbon reduction targets and do not disclose explicit SAF blend targets, highlighting that SAF is one of a basket of measures that aircraft operators can take to reduce their emissions alongside fleet renewal, operational efficiency and market-based mechanisms such as offsets. Figure 1 shows the 20 airlines with the highest explicit SAF blend targets. They represent more than 90% (15.3 Mt) of all global voluntary commitments (16.3 Mt).CASE STUDY 1 DHL leading the way as number one SAF consumer Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 6