The global energy landscape, 2024-2025 BOX 3 Title of box one goes here, try to keep less than 85 characters in lengthThe events of 2024 set the tone for a turbulent energy landscape in 2025. A confluence of geopolitical, economic and technological disruptions exposed key vulnerabilities in global systems – heightening the urgency of securing more resilient, adaptive energy strategies: –Geopolitical tensions intensified: Conflicts in key regions – including Europe, the Middle East and Africa – reinforced a global sense of fragility. State-based conflict was ranked as the top global risk in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025, reflecting a sharp rise in concerns around geopolitical fragmentation, proxy wars and terrorism.1 –Conflicts over trade increased: Closely linked was the growing threat of geoeconomic confrontation, including the use of sanctions, tariffs and investment screening – now ranked as the third most pressing global risk, directly after extreme weather events.2 –Supply chain disruption continued: These tensions deepened supply chain disruptions – driven by trade restrictions, resource nationalism and economic decoupling – exposing vulnerabilities in energy markets and limiting access to critical materials for renewables, batteries and grids. According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025, the following factors are likely to present a material risk on a global scale in the year 2025 (see graph below). World Economic Forum’s global risks factors Share of respondents (%)5 10 15 20 25State-based armed conﬂict Extreme weather events Geoeconomic confrontation Misinformation and disinformation Societal polarization Economic downturn Critical change to Earth systems Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedom Inequality 0 Risk categories: Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological23% 8%14% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% Source: World Economic Forum. (2025). The Global Risks Report 2025 20th Edition. –Global energy demand surged: Global energy demand surged by 2.2%, well above the decade’s average, driven by record electricity use caused by heatwaves, electrification3 and data centre growth. Most new demand was met by renewables and natural gas, deepening energy security risks for importers and boosting revenues for exporters. –CO2 emissions hit an all-time high: The emissions impact in 2024 – the hottest year on record4 – was also notable. Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 0.8% to 37.8 billion tonnes.5 While emissions continued to grow, the rate of increase slowed relative to previous years – even as the global economy expanded by 3%,6 and energy demand reached record levels (up 2.2%). –Energy prices eased but remain volatile: Prices declined from 2023 highs. This was largely driven by falling global energy commodity prices, although regional market factors led to diverging trends. However, in most regions, prices remained well above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, and underlying volatility persisted due to ongoing demand pressures and supply-side uncertainties. –Monetary dynamics constrained investments: While short-term rates fell, long-term capital remained expensive due to inflation and sovereign debt stress, especially in emerging markets. –Digital expansion reshaped energy consumption: The AI market size surged in 2024 (+35% y-o-y),7 and it’s projected that data centres will account for 10% of global power demand growth by 2030.8 While their aggregate impact is still moderate, energy demand from AI and data infrastructure is expected to be highly concentrated in certain countries – such as Ireland and parts of the US9 – underscoring the urgency of localized grid upgrades and clean energy expansion. In 2025, investor confidence faces renewed pressures amid mounting global volatility. As of 21 May 2025 the US continues to enforce a 10% universal tariff10 alongside elevated “reciprocal” tariffs on 57 countries.11 Combined with an evolving global trade landscape and broader fragmentation, these measures are amplifying market uncertainty, reshaping supply chains and raising capital risk premiums. Capital markets remain highly sensitive to inflation, fiscal stress and geopolitical tensions – potentially slowing corporate capital expenditure (CapEx), delaying clean technology deployment and increasing the cost of capital for long-horizon energy investments. Higher input prices, increased investments in defence and trade disruptions are also forcing fiscal trade-offs, which may impact public investment in clean infrastructure, digital transformation and innovation. Reflecting this turbulence, in April 2025, the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% down to 2.8%, with similarly muted expectations for the Eurozone (0.8%), underlining the weakening macroeconomic backdrop for energy transition investment. This evolving landscape raises urgent questions about the resilience of energy systems – particularly energy security and the adaptability of policy frameworks. The following analysis of sub- index trends and country-level performance explore this in detail. Source: World Economic Forum. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 13