The global energy system has steadily evolved over the past decade – but 2025 may mark an inflection point as long-building pressures converge to redefine how energy is produced, secured and valued. Technology, policy, trade and geopolitical risks are now playing a greater role in shaping future trajectories. Understanding this shift requires a clear view of the initial starting point, what’s changed since that point and what this means for the future resilience, inclusivity and competitiveness of energy systems. Today’s energy system has been shaped not by sudden disruption, but by a decade of shifting priorities in energy production, consumption and governance. Transformation momentum began to build in the early 2010s, driven by falling renewable costs, post- 2008 financial crisis climate alignment and the 2015 Paris Agreement. Technological breakthroughs in solar, wind and storage precipitated optimism for a low-carbon future.65 As the decade progressed, however, rising geopolitical tensions and growing dependence on global supply chains revealed new vulnerabilities. Countries responded by scaling domestic clean energy value chains and emphasizing energy sovereignty, seen in policies like the EU Battery Action Plan.66 The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these trends. Supply chain shocks, surging gas prices and widening equity gaps underscored the need for resilience and inclusive access. Between 2019 and 2021, gas equity scores dropped sharply – highlighting rising consumer burdens in vulnerable regions. By 2022, climate risk, supply fragility and competitiveness concerns had converged into strategic urgency. Clean energy became central to economic and geopolitical strategies. Policy shifts in the US, EU and other regions reflected this – aiming to localize production, reduce dependencies and create green jobs. Examples include the US Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition (2022),67 the EU Critical Raw Materials Act,68 the IRA69 and the Green Deal Industrial Plan.70 The realization that the energy transition would require a significant rise in critical mineral and material consumption cast light on bottlenecks and dependencies in the critical minerals value chain. A rise in the frequency and impact of extreme weather events provided impetus for renewing focus on energy infrastructure resilience and tackling energy- related emissions (through strategies like tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency). Recent years have seen renewed interest in nuclear energy, growth in electromobility and the rapid emergence of AI – raising both electricity demand and new opportunities to optimize energy systems and improve efficiency. Over the past decade, system performance improved modestly (+3.3%), with gains in sustainability (+5.3%) and security (+3.4%), while equity saw limited progress (+1.5%). In contrast, transition readiness rose more decisively (+12.5%), led by strong momentum in regulation and political commitment (+19.6%) and infrastructure (+15.4%). Finance and investment (+10.3%), education and human capital (+6.8%) and innovation (+3.4%) also improved, though at a slower pace – highlighting uneven capacity to scale solutions and build resilient talent ecosystems.4.1 Historic drivers of energy transformation Historic drivers of energy transformation – key takeaways BOX 7 The energy landscape reflects over a decade of gradual shifts. Today’s energy system is the result of years of evolving priorities, disruptions and transformation – but 2025 marks a critical inflection point.The ambition-delivery gap emerged early. Climate regulation surged post-2015, but sustainability progress stalled, revealing that political will was insufficient without implementation and equity alignment.Resilience rose through crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks exposed deep vulnerabilities – triggering renewed focus on resilience, local manufacturing and energy access.Clean energy moved from agenda to imperative. By 2022, clean energy was no longer just about climate – it became central to national economic and security strategies. Source: World Economic Forum. The realization that the energy transition would require a significant rise in critical mineral and material consumption cast light on bottlenecks and dependencies. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2025 37