Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025

Foreword The travel and tourism industry has staged one of the most dramatic recoveries in modern economic history, defying predictions. After losing more than $4 trillion five years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry’s remarkable resilience has led to a rebound, perhaps underscoring that foresight is more important than ever to proactively manage change in a world defined by complexity. Consider this: Japan surged to a record 36.9 million international visitors in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 15% and cementing its position as a global tourism leader; and Venice introduced a €5 day- tripper fee to control an overwhelming flow of visitors. Around the globe, hotel occupancy rates in major destinations now exceed 2019 levels. Meanwhile, strategic partnerships between nations are reshaping travel corridors, with new bilateral agreements streamlining access while airlines forge deeper alliances to rebuild global connectivity. These signs of the industry’s strength and durability aren’t isolated incidents. They’re early signals of a profound transformation reshaping how, where and why we travel. What lies ahead? This paper outlines possible futures to help investors, operators and policy-makers make sense of four forces that are rewriting the rules of travel and tourism – shifting geopolitics, climate urgency, technological disruption and evolving values – and be better prepared to navigate this dynamic change. By 2030, these forces will converge, potentially creating four possible future scenarios: –A thousand islands world. Fragmentation kills trust. Travel withers. –Harmonious horizons. Stability breeds exploration. Overtourism threatens paradise. –Green ascent. Environmental consciousness transforms travel. Equity gaps widen. –Tech turbulence. AI personalizes everything. Humans adapt or get left behind. The future isn’t inevitable. But it’s arriving fast. From airline boardrooms to village guesthouses, everyone faces the same question: How do you thrive when the fundamentals of mobility, sustainability and economic exchange are being rewritten in real time? The answer will determine whether travel and tourism become a global force for good – or something else entirely. 2030 is less than five years away. The transformation starts now.Mauricio Zuazua Partner and Regional Chair Middle East and Africa, Kearney Francisco Betti Head, Global Industries Team; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Jeff Merritt Head, Centre for Urban Transformation; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism July 2025 Caption: Białowieża Forest, Poland Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 3