across T&T operations, from personalized marketing to resource management: –ICT readiness: TTDI 2024 scores have risen by 7.2% since 2019, yet 63% of least-developed countries lack 5G infrastructure. Africa’s ICT score (2.88) trails Asia-Pacific (4.98), hindering smart destination management. –Non-leisure resources: Hybrid work policies have boosted blended travel, a trend followed by about 80% of business travellers nowadays.21 Digital nomad visas in 34 countries (e.g. Estonia and the United Arab Emirates) now attract 4.2 million remote workers annually. Some relevant illustrative features include the following: –Cybersecurity threats: Sector losses from breaches may hit $450 billion annually by 2030, which is considered in the high range vs. other sectors, although financial services and healthcare would typically experience higher absolute losses due to larger transaction volumes and more valuable data. ISO 27018-TT certification mandates encryption for platforms handling more than 1 million user records; travel and tourism businesses should therefore urgently invest in robust data protection and compliance frameworks to avoid regulatory penalties and operational disruptions. Failure to act will leave organizations – especially the 80% of SMEs that make up the sector – exposed to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, undermining business continuity, customer experience and the global competitiveness of destinations. –Virtual tourism disruption: The global virtual tourism market is valued at $14.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $29.1 billion by 2035 (CAGR 7.4%) as immersive digital experiences become more mainstream in travel, education and corporate sectors,22 increasing the total attendance number over existing physical travel. The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival launched the Coachellaverse, a digital platform enabling global audiences who cannot attend in person to participate in the festival experience, blending entertainment, social interaction and digital collectibles.23 In conclusion, the T&T sector’s future will be shaped by the intensity and interaction of these four variables. Stakeholders must adopt a systems-thinking approach, recognizing that advances in sustainability or technology alone cannot offset geopolitical or economic shocks. By aligning investments with new strategies – from ICT infrastructure to labour inclusivity – the sector can navigate uncertainty and emerge as a catalyst for growth. An ecosystem approach with all industries is critical for the sustainability of the sector and to ensure it unlocks full positive potential equally for economies and businesses, and residents and travellers. In today’s complex and dynamic volatile environment, a comprehensive methodology has been developed to identify and prioritize scenarios that possess the greatest likelihood of materializing, thereby empowering stakeholders to navigate uncertainty with new insights and strategic direction. The selected timeframe, 2025–2030, could be reassessed later on, as key variables may change. Most of the dataset for scenario determination is from international organizations, with the remaining data coming from surveys and interviews conducted with members of the World Economic Forum in March–April 2025 to enrich the paper with field-based insights. In addition, standardized key metrics supporting the four major variables described in Section 1.1 are considered across all scenarios for clarity and compatibility (e.g. GDP contribution, number of visitors, employment impact, percentage of total greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions, TTDI 2024 scores) and compared to a base case (current state/“if nothing happens”) to help highlight the relative differences across the scenarios. The overall achieved score obtained for each scenario is computed through successive aggregations of scores obtained for each measured variable. Final scores are first normalized and rated on a common scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the least probable and 10 the most probable outcome. The T&T sector is at a critical inflection point, shaped by the interplay of macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical realignments, environmental pressures and technological disruptions. This white paper synthesizes data from the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index (TTDI) 2024 and from the Global Risks Report 2025 in consultation with the T&T community and sector experts to construct four plausible scenarios for the sector’s evolution over the next decade. By examining key metrics and their combinatorial effects, the analysis identifies strategic implications and mitigation strategies for stakeholders.Approach and methodology used to identify the key scenarios for T&T Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 7

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025