Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025

Overview of the four major scenarios FIGURE 1Scenarios for the future of T&T2 Based on growth areas and tension points, potential scenarios could serve as a guiding path for the global T&T community. Major scenarios identified 2.1The purpose of the scenarios presented in this paper is to examine global megatrends and plot unpredictable events, highlighting their potential ripple effects on the T&T sector. The aim is to emphasize the criticality and potential impact of certain factors for T&T stakeholders and industry players to consider, discuss and incorporate into their strategic plans. Rather than trying to predict future events precisely, these scenarios acknowledge the possibility of unforeseen events in the coming years.Each of the scenarios featured is outlined as follows: first by elaborating on its respective structural foundations, demand–supply dynamics and economic multipliers, and finally by elaborating on its respective risk matrix (highlighting key related risks) as well as on the sustainability trade-offs. The contents are derived based on available forecasts of travel and tourism public data. Characterized by high geopolitical fragmentation and global economic stagnationCharacterized by a rapid sustainability transition and moderate growthCharacterized by high geopolitical stability and strong economic growthCharacterized by accelerated tech disruption and uneven growth Scenario 1 A thousand islands world Scenario 3 Green ascent Scenario 2 Harmonious horizons Scenario 4 Tech turbulence Source: World Economic Forum Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 8