Structural foundations: This scenario arises from escalating geopolitical tensions, trade decoupling and a retreat from multilateralism. The fragmentation of global governance systems – evidenced by the collapse of WTO dispute resolution mechanisms and the proliferation of regional trade blocs – drives a 45% reduction in cross-border tourism investment by 2030. Geopolitical flashpoints, such as territorial disputes in Gaza and Ukraine, reduce Safety and Security pillar TTDI scores by 11% in affected regions, while visa restrictions in countries such as the US and in the European Union24 are becoming significantly stricter and more complex, reflecting a policy shift towards tighter immigration controls and heightened security screening.25 The TTDI 2024’s Openness to T&T pillar reveals that 63% of economies now impose stricter visa requirements for travellers from geopolitical rivals, mirroring Cold War-era travel barriers. Economic stagnation exacerbates these trends, with global GDP growth stalled at 1.1% annually. Advanced economies face prolonged inflationary pressures, while emerging markets grapple with debt crises triggered by rising interest rates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 22% decline in per capita tourism spending in low-income economies by 2030, as currency devaluations and fiscal austerity reduce disposable incomes.Demand–supply dynamics: A significant decrease in long-haul aviation networks reshapes tourism flows, with regional blocs dominating travel patterns. ASEAN intraregional tourism surges to 68% of total arrivals (vs. 40% in 2024), supported by the bloc’s single aviation market and harmonized visa policies. Similarly, the AfCFTA could boost intra-African tourism to 55% of arrivals by 2030, up from 48% in 2024.26 However, airfare volatility increases by 300% on remaining international routes due to fuel price shocks and protectionist aviation policies (i.e. government measures designed to shield a nation’s domestic aviation industry from foreign competition). Supply chains localize as geopolitical tensions disrupt global logistics. European hotel chains reshore 32% of procurement activities, increasing construction costs by 18% due to reduced economies of scale.27 Labour shortages persist, with TTDI data showing a 14% decline in hospitality workforce participation rates across OECD nations since 2020, driven by ageing demographics and restrictive migration policies. Automation accelerates, with 38% of airport check-in and baggage-handling tasks replaced by AI systems – though this fails to fully offset productivity losses from fragmented regulatory environments.Scenario 1: A thousand islands world This first scenario is characterized by high geopolitical fragmentation and global economic stagnation and has the following characteristics. Caption: Phi Phi Islands, Thailand Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 9

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025