Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025

Economic multipliers – the scenario yields mitigated socioeconomic benefits: –Employment shifts: Direct T&T employment contracts by 22 million jobs globally, concentrated in aviation and cross-border tourism services. However, regional rail networks create 8.5 million new jobs, exemplified by the EU’s Trans-Europe Express 2.0 programme linking secondary cities.28 –Asset stranding: $1.2 trillion in aviation infrastructure becomes obsolete, including 47 major hub airports reliant on now-defunct long-haul routes.29 Conversely, border-region economies such as Mexico’s Baja California and Poland’s eastern territories see 12% GDP growth from cross-border shopping tourism. –Security premiums: Travel insurance costs triple due to conflict risks, while “safe zone” certification programmes emerge for destinations meeting ISO 31030 risk management standards. Risk matrix: –Aviation collapse: The grounding of 60% of wide-body fleets reduces aviation emissions considerably but also eliminate a significant number of related jobs. As a suggested mitigation solution, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)’s Regional Air Mobility Fund subsidizes short-haul electric aircraft routes, preserving connectivity for 78 secondary hubs. –Surveillance tourism: Biometric entry–exit systems in 34 countries enable real-time traveller tracking, deterring 75 million privacy-conscious tourists annually.30 A mitigation example would be to leverage the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)++ framework that mandates algorithmic transparency and data minimization for T&T operators. –Resource nationalism: Export bans on lithium and rare-earth metals disrupt EV battery production, stalling green mobility investments. As a mitigation example, the WTTC’s Circular Tourism Initiative achieves 92% recycling rates for retired aircraft batteries through public– private partnerships.31 Sustainability trade-offs: While reduced aviation activity lowers sector emissions, rail and road transport emissions rise by 14% as tourists shift to land-based travel. Overtourism pressures intensify in border regions: in 2023, the Canary Islands – a border region between Europe and Africa with a resident population of about 2 million – experienced overtourism pressures as nearly 14 million visitors arrived, leading to severe overcrowding, housing shortages and widespread local protests against the strain on resources and quality of life.32 As an illustration on the impact on biodiversity, visitor numbers at Poland’s Białowieża Forest exceed carrying capacity by 37%, triggering a 29% decline in lynx populations.33 TTDI Demand Sustainability scores plummet to 2.89 (vs. 3.53 in 2024), reflecting extreme seasonality and overcrowding at remaining “safe” destinations. In short, this first scenario highlights a world split into a “thousand islands”, operating in isolation from each other as well as underscoring T&T’s vulnerability to systemic geopolitical and economic fractures. While regionalization offers limited growth avenues, stakeholders must balance security imperatives with inclusive development to prevent irreversible sectoral decline. Caption: Lauterbrunnen Valley, Switzerland Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 10