Structural foundations: This scenario emerges from a global landscape defined by multilateral cooperation, trade liberalization and sustained GDP growth averaging 3.8% annually through 2030. The revival of multilateral frameworks such as the Doha Development Agenda facilitates cross- border regulatory harmonization, reducing non-tariff barriers in aviation, hospitality and digital services by 32% compared to 2024 levels.34 Concurrently, the ICAO reports a significant expansion in seat capacity across Global South aviation corridors, driven by liberalized air service agreements and infrastructure investments in secondary hubs such as Jakarta-Soekarno-Hatta and Lagos-Murtala Muhammed.35 These developments align with TTDI 2024 findings showing Asia-Pacific’s Tourist Services and Infrastructure gap narrowing to 25% below European benchmarks (3.96 vs. 5.71), reflecting improved airport transit systems and hotel productivity.36 Demand–supply dynamics: The convergence of rising disposable incomes and visa liberalization triggers a 29% surge in international tourist arrivals by 2030, with Global South economies capturing 58% of incremental demand. Non-traditional source markets – notably India, Indonesia and Nigeria – contribute 43% of global outbound travel expenditure, driven by expanding middle-class cohorts.37 Leisure travel dominates, but blended travel38 segments grow at a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as hybrid work policies enable professionals to blend work with extended stays in destinations offering digital nomad visas, such as Estonia’s e-Residency programme. Supply-side responses remain uneven. While global hotel room inventory expands by 18%, labour shortages persist in high-contact service roles, with T&T wages lagging 19% behind comparable sectors in OECD economies.39 This imbalance strains operational efficiency, evidenced by a 22% decline in hospitality labour productivity scores in the TTDI’s Human Resources and Labour Market pillar since 2019.40 Automated check-in systems and AI-driven revenue-management tools mitigate some pressures, but workforce retention challenges underscore the need for sectoral upskilling initiatives. Economic multipliers – the scenario yields significant socioeconomic benefits: –Employment: Direct T&T employment reaches 430 million by 2030 (+29% vs. 2022), with women occupying 54% of managerial roles in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to targeted upskilling programmes.41Scenario 2: Harmonious horizons This second scenario is characterized by high geopolitical stability and a strong economic growth and has the following characteristics. Caption: Borobudur Temple, Java, Indonesia Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 11

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2025