From Blind Spots to Insights 2025

Cutting-edge companies devote considerable resources to future-proofing their client offerings, cultivating a deep understanding of the drivers of their customers’ needs and developing value propositions that enable them to create and capture commercial value. They also invest in the development of internal capabilities and core competencies to safeguard the future of their business. While considerable progress has been made over the past decade, international business is still generally reactive to geopolitical dynamics. Now that these dynamics can have first-order effects on a firm’s long-term success, the time has come to move towards a more active approach and invest in the necessary capabilities. The notion of a geopolitical radar indicates in part where the opportunities exist to adopt better practice. Radar is effective at detecting events above the water. An effective radar enables executives to navigate geopolitical icebergs, as one of the interviewees asserted. A well-functioning radar should provide warnings of imminent incoming threats. But while informed by the past, radar typically focuses on current developments. Unless steps are actively taken, institutional memory is weak, exacerbated by key person risk. Geopolitical radar only takes companies so far – sonar is also needed FIGURE 3 Worse, radar rarely reveals what is going on below the water’s surface. In our context, what this means is that the root causes of geopolitical dynamics may not even be identified, let alone their commercial consequences assessed. Not every driver of geopolitical events is slow-changing but many are (such as the factors responsible for manufacturing job losses in many economies). International business needs to augment its geopolitical radar with a geopolitical sonar, to continue the nautical analogy (see Figure 3). Leaving consideration of the drivers of geopolitical dynamics to (at best) periodic scenario planning initiatives does not cut it. Developing a succinct “world view” on these drivers, based on investments in internal capabilities and expertise and on externally sourced insight, is at a premium. Some of our interviewees acknowledged the need for a more rounded world view and pointed to certain appointments to their corporate board as a way to strengthen internal competencies. No doubt such expertise adds value but again, individuals and HUMINT should not substitute for sound process and actively tapping OSINT and other forms and sources of intelligence. These are complements, not substitutes. Other interviewees highlighted the need for agility in assessing geopolitical dynamics. Structured monitoring of pre-selected geopolitical risks based on previous episodes of disruption may, if done correctly, reveal valuable information in a timely manner. However, backward-looking identification of relevant risk increases the likelihood of being blindsided. A geopolitical sonar that surfaces insights into drivers of events constitutes a more supportive, agile response. Geopolitical radar Drivers and trendsTrack how? Track what? Geopolitical sonarActs and events e.g. economic coercion, use of export controls, financial sanctions and the CHIPS Act e.g. contest for primacy, political polarization, historical grievances From Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business 18