Introduction With no end in sight for growing geopolitical rivalry and increasing disruption from low-level as well as kinetic conflict, companies involved in cross- border operations and transactions are rapidly developing the capabilities needed to navigate the opportunities and risks created by an ever more fractured world. The starting point varies for each company, with some further along this journey than others. However, no global business can afford to ignore geopolitical factors when devising operational plans, assessing performance and options, or re- evaluating strategies for capitalizing on the many opportunities created by the global economy. The purpose of this white paper is to provide a status report on how firms are enhancing their detection, understanding and assessment of the many geopolitical factors that have emerged over the past decade. The term “geopolitical radar” is used here to capture these tasks and is distinguished from “geopolitical muscle”, which refers to the translation of geopolitical insights into corporate decisions. While a useful organizing concept, as will become evident, the concept of a geopolitical radar is not without its flaws. It is difficult to see how international businesses could make informed decisions without a first-rate geopolitical radar. Assessing how companies are applying their geopolitical muscle will follow in a subsequent report. To prepare this white paper, interviews were conducted with senior corporate executives from 25 companies involved in tracking geopolitical factors. These companies were selected from different geographies and industries, and are both publicly listed and private. They share a common characteristic: each has a significant cross-border, multi-jurisdictional, global commercial footprint and therefore possesses a vested interest in an open world economy. The potential for cross-border impacts is a recurring characteristic of factors that executives deem geopolitical. Consequently, there is a strong link between geopolitics and international trade, investment, innovation and the movement of data, people and ideas across borders. These interviews, conducted from June to October 2024, form the evidential basis for this white paper. Experts from IMD Business School, Boston Consulting Group and the World Economic Forum’s international trade team participated in the interviews, which were held off-the-record to encourage candour. To protect confidentiality, this paper does not identify interviewees or their employers. This is the second round of interviews conducted on this subject with executives from international businesses. The first round, involving 13 companies, resulted in a white paper, Geopolitical Rivalry and Business: 10 Recommendations for Policy Design, published by the World Economic Forum in May 2024.1 That initial white paper laid the groundwork by exploring how executives perceive unfolding geopolitical dynamics and their immediate impact on operations and financial performance, offering 10 public policy recommendations and eight suggestions for businesses. This white paper is structured into five chapters: –Chapter 1 discusses the commonalities and differences between events, trends and factors that businesses deem “geopolitical”. –Chapter 2 describes how firms are strengthening their geopolitical radar. –Chapter 3 assesses the state of corporate progress in these efforts. –Chapter 4 lays the groundwork for a discussion on best practice. –Chapter 5 looks at possible payoffs from strengthening geopolitical radar and sonar.This white paper presents insights from interviews with senior executives from 25 major businesses from different geographies and industries, casting light on the current state of efforts by companies to develop geopolitical radar. From Blind Spots to Insights: Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business 5

From Blind Spots to Insights 2025