From Minerals to Megawatts 2025

Concentrated sources of supply Across EVs, data centres and ET&D, mining is relatively more dispersed, but refining and processing are highly concentrated. The IEA estimates that the top three refining countries’ average market share rose from approximately 82% (2020) to 86% (2024),38 a level of concentration rare in other industrial inputs. Countries with ≥5% share of mined and refined production of select minerals (2024) FIGURE 10 Mining mineral count Refining mineral countCount of minerals at >5% share >10 minerals 6-9 minerals 3-5 minerals 1-2 minerals 0 minerals1 19 4 4 3 211 1 1 11 1 122 2 Notes: 1 Includes countries that are involved in mining and/or refining but do not constitute ≥5% market share for the tracked minerals. Sources: IEA, S&P , USGS and Kearney analysis –Mining: Of the 1939 tracked minerals, China has ≥5% mined share in 15, Australia in seven and Brazil and Russia each in six – still concentrated for several minerals but more geographically spread than refining. –Refining: China holds ≥5% of refined output for all 19 tracked minerals and exceeds 75% for several (gallium, graphite, REEs, magnesium, germanium and cobalt). Exceptions underscore the rule: Nickel processing is now dominated by Indonesia (often via Chinese-owned assets) and gold refining is more distributed, with Switzerland a major hub. Other smaller hubs include India with market shares ≥5% in four bulk metals (aluminium, iron, zinc and lead) and Japan with four (tantalum, copper, gold and silver). From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids 22