Geopolitics and trade Mining and refining: Trade and industrial policies are reshaping where value is added and who gets material first. Export controls (e.g. on REEs, gallium and germanium), sanctions and tariffs – from US duties on aluminium and copper to Canada’s licence recissions41 – have introduced new layers of planning uncertainty. Maintaining open and predictable trade remains critical to resilience and affordability. Component manufacturing and end products: OEMs in EVs and grid equipment reported heavy dependence on Chinese processing and components, leaving them vulnerable to regulatory shifts and logistics shocks. Maritime disruptions, such as the 2023-24 Red Sea42 re-routing, demonstrated how choke points can ripple through global supply chains. Cross-border grid interconnections also face misaligned national policies and permitting delays. Market and financing Mining and refining: Margins are tightening and investment decisions are delayed. Low TC/RCs (treatment charges or refining charges – the fees paid to smelters/refiners by miners for converting ore or concentrates) and policy volatility slow new refining projects while accelerating closures. Subsidy-driven competition, price swings and localization rules create uncertainty over where capacity will emerge – and which assets may be stranded. Component manufacturing and end products: EV suppliers cited policy volatility as a driver of demand uncertainty. Data centre component makers have visibility of only six to nine months, while utilities face procurement cycles misaligned with decade-long grid investments, limiting their ability to finance expansions. Infrastructure Mining and refining: Access to logistics and utilities is now the critical path for new projects. Multi-billion dollar enabling infrastructure – railways, ports, desalination or power – is often required before production begins. Projects such as the QB2 copper mine expansion43 in Chile or Simandou44 in Guinea illustrate how the scope of infrastructure can rival that of the mine itself. Component manufacturing and end products: Transformer and HV-cable bottlenecks can hold up entire projects. Lead times of one to four years in some markets means EV chargers, data centres and grid upgrades compete for the same equipment. Resources and energy Mining and refining: Declining ore grades and tightening power supply raises costs and emissions. Copper grades have fallen 40% since the 1990s,45 while smelters from Yunnan to Mozambique46 have faced energy curtailments, thus idling globally relevant assets. Component manufacturing and end products: Tight supplies of copper, aluminium and electrical steel (GOES) expose all three value chains to shared material risks. Trade and industrial policy can change mid-build. Our operational risk therefore becomes planning certainty: whether we will be able to access materials at the time and price we anticipated and whether policy will still support our projected growth. From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids 26

From Minerals to Megawatts 2025