From Minerals to Megawatts 2025

Across very different bottlenecks, the risk pattern is similar: capacity may exist in aggregate but arrives too late or at a higher price than anticipated, so costs rise and schedules slip before supply can be requalified or redirected. Demand surges in one value chain tighten the same metals and equipment others need; as EV, data centre and grid build-outs draw on overlapping inputs such as copper, electrical steel and semiconductors, short-term trade-offs emerge – reinforcing the need for dialogue and coordinated planning. With capacity concentrated in a few hubs, policy or operational shocks propagate across the system. Without coordination, procurement becomes zero-sum – with higher prices and longer delays for everyone. Competing risk agendas 3.3 Risk perspectives differ by tier and shared understanding of each other’s exposure is uneven, yet recurring patterns appear across EVs, data centres and ET&D, compounding from mining to end products. During consultations, executives across value chains shared their top risks, which were subsequently translated into seven risk vectors. Figure 13 maps how these risks concentrate across tiers and highlights how priorities differ by value chain step. High supply concentration amplifies each, turning local shocks into global impact.Across consultations, three risks dominated: –Geopolitics and trade: Proliferating trade rules that regionalize supply and increase lead-time and price uncertainty. –Market and financing: Industrial policy volatility – incentives, local-content rules, licensing – that compress margins and rewire demand signals. –Infrastructure: Not just ports, rail and power to upstream sites, but thin capacity for critical components and downstream grid readiness that gate new capacity and extend queues. Risk perspectives across the value chain FIGURE 13 Note: The heatmap reflects the frequency with which participants cited the particular risk among top risks; this is not a ranked survey. 1 TC/RCs: Treatment and refining charges. 2 GOES: Grain-oriented electrical steel Source: Authors– High dependence on China – Exposure to trade restrictions and tariffs – Maritime choke points and security– REEs, Ga, Ge: Chinese export restrictions – Maritime choke points and security – Global trade frictions and sanctions – Cu: Negative TC/RCs1 and low margins – Al/Cu/Ni: High market volatility – Ni/Co/Li: Local beneficiation policies may strain exports – Cu/Fe: Remote location constraints for ports, rail, desalination – Specialty steel (green/GOES):2 Lack of sufficient global capacity – Cu: Ore grades declining – Al/Cu/Ni: Refining vulnerable to power cost/availability – Mn/Li/Ni: Demand uncertainty due to battery churn – Recycling tech not scaled – Tech evolution may displace minerals, resulting in stranded assets – Environmental permitting delays (depending on geography/mineral) – Li/Cu: Local community opposition, water scarcity – Recycled vs mined feed: Recycled less traceable – 3TG/Co: Artisanal mining, human rights, conflict funding concerns – Continuous worker safety focus – Skills shortage for complex projects– Rapid growth but only 6-9 months’ visibility for component producersGeopolitics and trade Market and financing InfrastructureIncreasing systemic exposureResources and energy Technology Sustainability and licence -to-operate Labour and skills– Utility procurement cycles misaligned with long-term investment needs– EV policy volatility – Chip bottlenecks – Electricity infrastructure investment– Transformer and high-voltage cable bottlenecks– Investment and rollout of public charging networks – REE accessibility – Sustainable power and water access– Tight supply of copper, aluminium, GOES2– REE accessibility – Frequent tech refresh – Gaps in material circularity and traceability– Storage tech uncertainty – Slow qualification of new tech and suppliers– High battery chemistry churn creating uncertainty – Carbon and water footprint reputational risk– Permitting and land-use constraints – Community opposition– Emissions scrutiny – Recyclability challenges – Conflict minerals exposure – Infrastructure and digital skills gap (esp. AI)– Scarcity of HV engineers and technicians– High demand for chemists, engineers, supply chain specialistsElectric vehicles Data centres Electricity transmission and distributionMining and extraction Refining and processing Manufacturing End products Perspective on risk Critical High Medium From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids 25