From Minerals to Megawatts 2025

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Mineral intensity has two aspects: scale and criticality. Sectors with a large share of global demand – such as EVs for lithium, and grids for copper and vanadium – can shape market signals, steer investment and accelerate innovation, but are also mutually exposed to vulnerabilities faced by producers that, in turn, rely on their bankable demand to scale capacity. Sectors with smaller demand have many essential specialty inputs – such as data centres’ reliance on gallium, germanium and rare earth elements (REEs) – yet have limited sway over supply or policy decisions and must track the moves of bigger buyers. Figure 2 shows why both groups need to engage: those with scale influence outcomes; those with critical need feel the consequences. Value chain demand contribution across tracked minerals (% of total global demand, 2035e) FIGURE 2 94% 7% 86% Li Ag Fe PO Ge Mn Si Sn Au Pb Ga Zn Ta AI Mg Ni V Cu REEs C1Co High >50%Moderate 10-50%Low 1-10%55% 36% 33%18% 29% 28%25% 5%3% 5% 6% 3% 2% 2%2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0.5% 1%1%7% 8% 10%4%56% 41% 33% 29% 29% 29% 25% 13% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% EV demand contribution Data centre demand contribution ET&D demand contribution OtherIn addition to its own mineral demand, data centre capacity growth is expected to contribute to 8-10% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035, therefore indirectly contributing to ET&D minerals demand 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%0.5%1% Note: 1C: Graphite Sources: IEA, Shanghai Metals Market, CRU, Association for Iron & Steel Technology, International Lead and Zinc Study Group, United States Geological Survey, Silver Institute, Research and Markets, International Tin Association, S&P Global and Kearney analysis The next three subsections map where minerals sit inside each product system. From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids 6
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