From Shock to Strategy 2025

Executive summary Uncertainty – driven by the profound shocks of disruptive geopolitical, climate and technological events – is pushing industry to rethink the configuration of global value chains. Just a decade ago, manufacturers championed the principles of globalization, but today 90% of industry is shifting towards regionalization.1 In the face of news headlines about national elections, cyberattacks and weather events, decision-makers must navigate an increasingly complex landscape where strategic agility, resilience and proactive risk management are essential to remain competitive. As global value chains start to rewire, the Global Future Council on Advanced Manufacturing and Value Chains, a think tank comprising industry experts, leading academics, civil society and public officials, has set out to create potential scenarios to guide manufacturers’ decision-making processes. The new operating environment will be shaped by eight driving forces, as identified by the Global Future Council: –Global relations and trade –Regulatory complexity –Consumer expectations and behaviour –Climate disruption –Technology evolution –Cybersecurity –Workforce and skills –Social equity Taking these powerful forces shaping the future of value chains into account, amid an ongoing rewiring, this white paper outlines potential scenarios for the configuration of global value chains in 2030, 2040 and 2050. Drawing on survey data, foresight workshops and use cases, the scenarios presented illustrate hypothetical future-ready value chains designed to address each driving force. The selected time horizons capture different stages of uncertainty, serving as a roadmap for the gradual reconfiguration of value chains as follows: –2030 represents the near term, with leading best-in-class examples acting as an anchoring point in how industry leaders are preparing their organizations. The council recognizes that manufacturers are taking strategic action in preparation for 2030, as evidenced through use cases. These baseline actions aim to ground 2040 and 2050 strategies in achievable progress, ensuring future goals are both ambitious and achievable (Section 3). –2040 is the focus of this report: scenario- planning methodology explores potential configurations of future-ready value chains and represents a stepping stone along the journey to 2050 (Section 4). –2050 is a visionary timeline that allows stakeholders to step out of an incremental mindset and consider ambitious alternatives – a north star – while taking into account the long- term decisions necessary in the coming years to reach these goals (Section 5). The scenarios in this paper serve as strategic tools for manufacturing and supply chain executives as well as policy-makers, equipping them with foresight to help them think through and prepare for an increasingly complex and uncertain future. By envisioning different configurations of global value chains, this work enables leaders to take proactive steps towards long-term resilience. For 2030, the report showcases actionable references for future preparedness through use cases of companies that have successfully embraced integrated sustainability, end-to-end collaboration and technology adoption. Beyond serving as a framework for examining future possibilities, this report is a call to action – drawing on the Global Future Council’s thought leadership to identify critical areas for building long-term resilience and offering actionable guidance on the potential value chain configurations that will drive competitiveness and growth through 2040. The council’s long-term 2050 vision underscores the driving forces that leaders should prioritize to drive sustainable progress and establish resilience in the decades ahead.In light of the rewiring of global value chains, this paper presents strategic scenarios for a resilient future. From Shock to Strategy: Building Value Chains for the Next 30 Years 4