From Wildfire Risk to Resilience The Investment Case for Action 2026

This paper recognizes that wildfires expose social and ecological vulnerabilities that demand adaptive suppression and response capacity alongside measures that enhance long-term sustainability. Meaningful assessment of climate perils must ask: resilience of what, for whom and to what stressors? Ecosystems, communities and economies face distinct recovery paths. Evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)43 and empirical studies44,45,46 highlight the increasing intensity of climate-driven extremes and uneven vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of pairing mitigation with adaptation and participatory governance.47 Resilience is multidimensional; hence, measuring it requires metrics that capture the breadth of indicators across environmental, social, economic and cross-sectoral/regional dimensions. Considering these dimensions holistically helps mitigate unintended consequences of optimizing one metric at the expense of others, while failing to effectively advance overall resiliency. The examples below distinguish a) what to measure as leading indicators of how resilient a community is, b) the cost of inaction as lagging indicators that cost if prevention fails and fires prevail, and c) fire resilience benefits as the measurable upside of resilience investments. Key examples include: 1. Environmental a. What to measure: community density, land use/land cover, WUI, fire emissions, smoke days/PM, watershed function (sediment, turbidity), fuel load/ forest structure, biodiversity indicators b. Cost of inaction: larger seasonal emission spikes, forest and biodiversity loss; ecosystem degradation that raises downstream risks and response costs c. Fire resilience benefits: avoided losses from reduced high-severity fire impacts (lower severity and spread) and reduced smoke exposure and related health harms; improved watershed function (water quality and supply), reduced post-fire flooding and erosion risk, and protection of ecosystems (habitat and biodiversity)48 2. Human, social and health a. What to measure: evacuations/ displacement, smoke-related casualties/ absences, lingering toxins in soil and built environment post-fire, mental health burden, equity impact on livelihoods and recovery outcomes across socioeconomic groups (e.g. housing re-occupancy)b. Cost of inaction: disruption and inequity compound in under-resourced regions, including emerging and under-insured markets, recovery and health costs persist beyond the fire season; human dislocation, mortality and morbidity (from both direct and indirect fire exposure and health hazards) c. Fire resilience benefits: longer and higher- quality lives; coordinated community action, such as homeowners associations (HOAs)/ municipalities setting shared standards and building local capacity, reduced smoke exposure and displacement49,50 3. Economic and financial a. What to measure: expected annual loss (EAL), total losses and disaster spending incurred, premium/coverage changes at renewal, capital release/recycling, insurance penetration, avoided utility/public-agency costs and resilience project payback b. Cost of inaction: lack of insurance availability and low affordability; fiscal volatility from disaster response-heavy spending, reduced access to lending and financing, slower economic development c. Fire resilience benefits: visible, verified and programmatic mitigation; leading to losses decreasing and insurance premiums and access to coverage improving; prevention finance unlocks scaling resilience and facilitates economic development51,52 4. Cross-sector and regional a. What to measure: supply chain interruptions, municipal credit/tax revenue stability, housing and municipal bond markets in high-risk areas and post-fire cascading hazards (debris flow, flood, water contamination) b. Cost of inaction: regional productivity shocks and asset devaluation; repeated disasters drive fiscal stress and risk contagion53 c. Fire resilience benefits: limiting tax base erosion and fiscal pressure protects municipal credit,54 reduced downward pressure on property values in higher wildfire-risk areas supports housing markets,55 and reduced business interruption and supply chain ripple effects support faster regional recovery56 From Wildfire Risk to Resilience: The Investment Case for Action 11