From Wildfire Risk to Resilience The Investment Case for Action 2026

Executive summary Wildfires are outpacing current suppression capabilities and now pose a significant threat, requiring greater investment in fire prevention. Wildfire risk has entered a new era, with losses rising faster than current systems can manage, placing wildfires among the most destructive and costly climate-driven threats of the 21st century. In 2024, tree cover loss in Brazil’s Amazon biome rose 110% compared to 2023, with fires accounting for 60% of the loss.1 The January 2025 Los Angeles-area wildfires became one of the costliest wildfire events on record, with Swiss Re Institute estimating insured losses of $40 billion.2 Despite escalating losses, fire management spending in many regions remains focused on suppression and disaster response rather than prevention and planning. As Los Angeles looks to rebuild, each $1 invested in wildfire-resistant construction could save around $210 in avoided future economic losses.3 Yet, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes that more than half of wildfire-related expenditure is typically spent on response, while planning receives only around 0.2% of total wildfire budgets, underscoring a largely reactive approach.4 Building long-term resilience requires investment to move upstream and be measured, priced and financed over multiple years. The National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) estimates that wildfire- focused measures such as wildland-urban interface (WUI) code compliance can deliver benefit-cost ratios of roughly 2:1 to 8:1,5 while the US Chamber of Commerce estimates that every $1 not invested in wildfire preparedness could result in more than $22 in lost future economic activity.6 Key challenges –Escalating fire risk: Rising temperatures and drought result in dry fuels, intensifying fires and extending fire seasons across around 25% of vegetated land globally since the late 1970s.7 –Human ignitions: Most US wildfires are human-caused,8 while land-use change and expansion of the WUI increase property risk,9 even as prescribed fire remains a vital restoration tool.10 –Urban exposure: Ember-driven ignition and radiant heat transform wildfires into urban conflagrations, with structure-to-structure spread and building heat release far exceeding that of natural fuels.11,12 –Compound impacts: Smoke,13 grid strain,14 soil and watershed damage15 often outlast flames, increasing risks of mudslides, debris flows and flooding,16 while undermining public health, communities and economic development.17 –Wildfire–climate nexus: A climate–fire feedback loop emerges as wildfire emissions accelerate warming and fire risk, making deforestation prevention and stronger fire prevention essential climate mitigation and adaptation actions. –Protection gap: Between 2000 and 2023, around 56% of global wildfire losses were uninsured,18 as insurers withdraw from high- hazard regions due to rising losses, modelling uncertainty and pricing constraints. The solution framework This paper presents the case for investing in wildfire prevention through loss avoidance. It argues for scaling financial instruments that allow investors to earn returns from avoided losses and resilience investments. Four interconnected pillars are proposed to make prevention, mitigation and adaptation measurable and financeable: finance and insurance; tech, data and governance; nature-based solutions; and community and multistakeholder coordination. Path forward The Forum’s Global Wildfire Leadership Network proposes a roadmap aligned to five priorities: setting common standards, mobilizing blended finance, investing in AI and open data systems, empowering local capacity, and embedding resilience in policy and markets. Note: Unless otherwise noted, perspectives and examples are drawn from interviews with contributors acknowledged at the end of the paper. From Wildfire Risk to Resilience: The Investment Case for Action 4