Executive summary Amid rising global energy demand and evolving geopolitical dynamics, clean fuels are a key pillar for a more secure, affordable and sustainable energy system. Liquid and gaseous fuels supply 56% of energy use today and are especially important in transport and industry. Even as electrification grows fast, they will remain vital, supplying 40-55% of energy demand in 2050 across scenarios. Clean fuels – mainly liquid or gaseous fuels, ranging from biofuels to hydrogen derivatives and lower- carbon fossil fuels – can offer multiple sources of economic and societal value. They diversify energy supply and reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets by using widely available resources such as organic waste and renewable power. Biofuels production has enabled several net fossil fuel- importing countries to reduce import dependence by 5-15%. Clean fuels also stimulate industries and jobs, especially in rural areas, with two to three times the job intensity of conventional fuels. They can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and support productive land use – provided well-designed policies protect land, biodiversity and water resources against adverse impacts and competition between sectors. Ambitions to realize this potential are growing, as demonstrated by the “Belém 4x” pledge to quadruple sustainable fuel production and use by 2035, put forward by Italy, Japan, India and Brazil ahead of COP30 and now endorsed by more than 25 countries. The case for clean fuels is strong, but a reality check is needed to turn ambitions into investable projects. At least $100 billion in annual investments are needed by 2030 to deliver on global clean fuel ambitions. Current investments are ~$25 billion per year, or just above 1% of total investment for clean energy. At this rate, with only 10% of announced new capacity for 2030 past investment decision, the market will fall short of its targets. Substantial capital is available to close this gap, but companies struggle to realize adequate returns. Uncertain and incongruent policies, weak coordination among feedstock suppliers, fuel producers and customers, and an absence of firm demand are driving up costs and risks. Yet the direction is clear: latent demand is growing, technologies are maturing and significant profit opportunities exist.Clean fuels are key to the energy future, yet progress is slow. Turning ambition into projects needs joint action by governments, producers, distributors and customers. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 4

Fuelling the Future 2026