Scaling-up the market in the next decade calls for a dual focus. First, existing commercial pathways need expanding; second, greater innovation is required in early-stage pathways. Ramping up commercial fuels such as biogas, bioethanol and biodiesel – alongside measures that lower emissions from existing fossil fuels – can contribute to near-term emissions reductions, with the right incentives and safeguards. These fuels can be deployed with lower capital investment into established value chains as blend-in or drop-in solutions, serving as stepping stones to the future fuel mix. However, rapid commercialization of new feedstocks and technologies is needed to ease supply constraints, reduce fuel emissions intensity and meet demand targets within the next 5-10 years. Despite the higher cost of clean fuels, blending strategies (virtual or physical) can limit the impacts on consumer pricing as markets mature and costs come down, while pursuing a portfolio of pathways. Joint action to deploy proven solutions has untapped potential to accelerate the market. Despite the challenges, pioneering examples demonstrate that proven approaches are successfully unlocking adequate returns to support investment. Common to these solutions is their approach to reducing risk and providing the right enabling environment to coordinate investments. Three insights emerge from these success stories: –Performance-based policies rewarding verified emissions reductions and other benefits have successfully embedded societal value in investment decisions. For example, in Brazil, tradeable credits, along with low-interest loans and tax incentives, have stimulated demand in support of energy security and industrial development. The success of such policies depends on interoperable standards and predictable market instruments to create revenue certainty where there is a credible path to competitiveness. –Public-private mechanisms, such as double- sided auctions or book-and-claim, pool risks and connect producers and customers where markets are sub-scale. –Businesses partnering across the value chain can signal demand and potential supply, while rethinking how to contract, finance and allocate capital. This approach is proving successful in unlocking projects by bridging the gap between the market risks and infrastructure-type investment that characterizes clean fuel projects. Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market 5

Fuelling the Future 2026