Expectations for the evolution of aviation decarbonization policy, by region FIGURE 9 Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa North America Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe China Asia excluding China 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% I expect no substantial policy developments I expect positive policy developments I do not operate in the region or do not have a view I expect negative policy developments Source: World Economic Forum industry survey. CORSIA and emissions trading schemes Last year saw positive momentum for ICAO’s CORSIA initiative. Saint Lucia, Gabon and Uzbekistan joined the voluntary phase 1, bringing the total number of countries participating in the scheme from 2025 to 129.54 Four new carbon credit programmes were approved by ICAO as CORSIA-eligible,55 expanding the pool of credits available and potentially easing the crunch that market commentators expect in the coming years.56 Developments on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, approved at COP29, were welcomed by the industry as a positive step towards a smoother implementation of CORSIA. In future, for a carbon credit to be compliant with CORSIA, the host country in which the project is located must authorize the transaction (via a “letter of authorization”) and adjust its carbon inventory to ensure the carbon savings are not double-counted in its nationally determined contributions.Despite these advances, several respondents to the Forum’s survey flagged the implementation of CORSIA as a key risk for 2025. Many pointed out that China, Brazil, Russia and India have yet to join the first phase and see a potential risk that the US may reduce its participation or compliance, given the country has the largest demand for CORSIA units.57 Many of the airlines interviewed, however, reiterated their support for CORSIA and their willingness to participate, even on a voluntary basis. This demonstrates widespread support for the scheme and the importance of multilateral collaboration to tackle international aviation emissions. Nevertheless, participants’ ability to purchase credits may still be limited and market-dependent, with experts expecting potential volatility. In some markets, airlines will increasingly need to comply with not only CORSIA but also local emission trading schemes. In the EU, this year will see the continuation of the gradual phase-out of free allowances for airlines and reduction of the aviation emission caps, alongside a price-bridging mechanism to support SAF uptake. However, there were diverging views among respondents on the effectiveness of the ETS, as the price-bridging support is applied Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 23