Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025

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This year marks an important moment for the aviation sector’s journey to net zero. Updated national action plans on how countries intend to decarbonize aviation need to be submitted to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) by the next general assembly in September. As part of those decarbonization plans, the first few sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates in Europe came into force in January – with increasingly tough targets up to 2030. Over the coming months, more SAF plants will look to make their final investment decision and potentially progress to construction. Expectations for economy-wide decisions at COP30 in October are also high, with the aviation and clean fuels agenda playing an increasingly prominent role in multilateral events, including the G7 and G20. The actions that industry and governments across the world take this year will be vital to ensure the aviation sector remains on the right flight path to meet internationally agreed targets, with no countries or regions left behind in the quest for sustainability. The global vision agreed through ICAO means that, within five years, the carbon intensity of jet fuel will have to reduce by 5%. Looking ahead 25 years, ICAO’s long- term “aspirational goal” is net-zero international aviation by 2050. However, the sector is also poised to grow significantly by that date. Aviation executives are increasingly facing trade-offs between sustainability and growth, and both these are affected by the constantly evolving geopolitical context, with increased conflicts, looming trade barriers and recent elections across the globe affecting air traffic, policy, investment and feedstock flows. These events are impacting the dynamics between countries and the opportunities for collaboration at a time when such cooperation is critical for the low-carbon transition. In this important year for aviation sustainability, the World Economic Forum aims to foster the international action and collaboration needed between governments, aviation stakeholders and the wider value chain to accelerate industry’s transition to net-zero aviation and ensure sustainability remains paramount in the sector’s quest for growth. The aviation industry has demonstrated its ability to transform and adapt, by overcoming some of the challenges that have affected the sector in recent years, from safety issues to supply chain constraints and long-COVID impacts. How can this spirit of resilience be funnelled towards fuelling greater sustainability and how can momentum for sustainable aviation be maintained as the sector expands? Which priorities and actions can be taken forward? Which risks should public-private collaboration focus on this year to accelerate progress towards decarbonization? These are some of the questions we posed to Chief Executive Officers from the World Economic Forum’s aviation community in late 2024 and early 2025. Their views have informed this new flagship report that aims to set the scene for discussions over the year ahead. Our assessment, which we plan to publish regularly in this format, reviews key market developments and complements them with stakeholders’ perspectives and priorities. Our aim is to capture the evolution of aviation executives’ views over time and to inform ongoing opportunities for public-private collaboration. ForewordGlobal Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025March 2025 Gim Huay Neo Managing Director and Head, Centre for Nature and Climate, World Economic Forum Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 3
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