Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025

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The IMF has proposed the idea of pricing the emissions of international aviation and shipping, an approach they said could raise up to $200 billion a year in revenues by 2035, which could be allocated to climate finance.Workforce shortages can pose a threat to operational readiness and safety, as the recruitment of new maintainers may not keep pace with the needs of the industry.120 In its Next generation of aviation professionals (NGAP) strategy released in 2024, ICAO identified the lack of qualified personnel as one of the key causes of low compliance with aviation safety requirements.121 There are also important implications on sustainability, as the turnover and number of vacancies has an impact on the retention of talent and skills at a time when new technology and sustainability practices are being embedded into airport and airline operations. The integration of AI, robotics and automation in aviation operations is creating demand for new skills,122 alongside changes in refuelling and safety practices as multi-fuel technology is brought into the airport environment. Looking ahead to 2025, stakeholders interviewed for this report highlighted how the aviation industry must take decisive action to address the labour shortage and skills gap to ensure future operational readiness and safety, through recruitment campaigns, streamlined certification and enhanced retention strategies, as well as through reskilling activities to ensure that future sustainability requirements can be met and opportunities leveraged by the existing workforce. As part of this, AI and automation are expected to play a key role, creating significant demand for technology-related skills, as well as uniquely human abilities such as creativity, critical thinking and adaptability.123 Beyond airlines and airports, stakeholders also highlighted labour shortages across other parts of the aviation and fuel value chains that can have an impact on the sector’s ability to meet its internationally agreed targets. Among the concerns flagged were shortages of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors for SAF plants – a common trend affecting many other sectors, including wind energy.124 Just transition, involvement of the Global South and inequality As part of the increasing need to channel more capital towards developing countries for decarbonization, support for a just transition in aviation has become a recurrent theme for governments and international organizations, including for some Airports of Tomorrow stakeholders. The just transition has been a key area of debate during international negotiations and discussions in 2024, both within ICAO and at COP29, which focused on raising climate finance for this topic. The just transition across the economy is expected to remain a key priority for the sector in 2025, in particular during the ICAO General Assembly. A key priority of the Finvest Hub proposition unveiled by ICAO in February 2025 is the prioritization of financial support to scale-up alternative fuels in developing countries.125 A number of recent proposals to advance the just transition across the economy will have an impact on aviation. In October 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed the idea of pricing the emissions of international aviation and shipping, an approach they said could raise up to $200 billion a year in revenues by 2035, which could be allocated to climate finance.126 Meanwhile, the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force – launched at COP28 and co-chaired by Barbados, France and Kenya – is planning to publish climate-related levy proposals across several sectors by April 2025. For aviation, the task force proposes a levy of €0.33 per litre of jet fuel for international flights, as well as a frequent flyer levy of $9 for a person’s second flight, rising to $177 for their 20th flight within the same year. These two measures would generate an estimated $140 billion per year of funding, according to the task force.127 Airlines expressed their reservations with these proposals during COP29;128 similarly, some of the executives interviewed for this report were not supportive of the measures, but expected this topic would continue to feature heavily in upcoming international discussions. Meanwhile, programmes of foreign aid to support the decarbonization of the aviation sector continued, with over 20 feasibility studies in emerging countries being taken forward by the ICAO ACT-SAF programme in 2024, with support from the United Kingdom,129 the Netherlands,130 France, the European Union and Airbus.131 Conventional aircraft manufacturing and production slowdown Delivery delays and other supply chain issues in 2024 have led airlines to keep flying older airplane models, negatively affecting fuel efficiency and increasing maintenance costs. With greater fuel efficiency being a key pillar of most, if not all, airlines’ plans for net zero, this has impacted progress on decarbonization and even affected strategic goals around sustainability, as exemplified by Air New Zealand’s decision to backtrack on its 2030 carbon emissions reduction commitment.132 3.4 Technology risks Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 34
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