FIGURE 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%How optimistic are you that the 2030 vision agreed at CAAF/3 last year will be achieved? Very optimistic Somewhat pessimistic Very pessimistic Neutral Somewhat optimisticOptimism that ICAO’s 2030 vision will be achieved Note: CAAF/3 = Third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels, convened by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Dubai in November 2023. Source: World Economic Forum industry survey. The next ICAO General Assembly in September 2025 will be an important moment to assess industry optimism around the 2030 vision and whether the long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will remain the north star guiding countries ahead. Several of the stakeholders interviewed would like to see renewed support for ICAO from all countries, with a particular focus on supporting the Global South to achieve a just and equitable transition. ICAO’s General Assembly will not be the only international event under scrutiny this year. November’s COP30 in Brazil represents a major moment to advance climate negotiations on the back of developments during COP29 in Baku and the submission of updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) during 2025. While aviation has traditionally taken up limited space during recent conferences of parties, COP29 saw a multitude of aviation-related events and conversations spurred by key developments in international negotiations. In Baku, both the agreement of a new collective quantifiable goal – aiming to scale-up at least $1.3 trillion of public-private financing for developing countries by 2035 – and the adoption of final Article 6 rules have implications on aviation. The former led to multiple calls for implementing a global solidarity levy on aviation and shipping fuels (see Chapter 3.3),3 while the latter paved the way for a smoother implementation of ICAO’s CORSIA scheme by clarifying rules on corresponding adjustments for the use of carbon credits as mitigation measures in aviation, while avoiding double counting towards an NDC. Decarbonization vision of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) BOX 1 Net zero by 2050: At the 41st ICAO Assembly in October 2022, delegates from 184 member states of ICAO and 57 organizations adopted a collective long- term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This goal will be achieved through accelerated adoption of new and innovative aircraft technologies, streamlined flight operations and increased production and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). 5% reduction in carbon emissions from aviation fuel by 2030: At the third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3), in Dubai in November 2023, over 100 member states adopted a new ICAO Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other Aviation Cleaner Energies, which aims to reduce CO2 emissions in international aviation by 5% by 2030, compared to zero cleaner energy use. CORSIA: The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation was adopted by ICAO in 2016 to achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020. The global market-based scheme requires airlines to offset any increase in CO2 emissions above 2019 levels. CORSIA’s pilot phase began on 1 January 2021 and it will become mandatory for all countries in 2027. Source: ICAO.2 The next ICAO General Assembly in September 2025 will be an important moment to assess industry optimism around the long-term global aspirational goal for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025 8