Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026

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While the aviation sector continues to maintain a positive outlook and high climate ambition, real-world challenges around technology and economics have become more pressing: how can these sometimes opposing forces be reconciled? As industry executives and policy-makers consider their next steps towards more sustainable aviation in 2026, they will face some pragmatic trade-offs. Focus on developing e-SAF or other pathways? Based on feedback from the executives consulted for this report, one such decision will be around the prioritization of e-fuels – a technology with considerable long-term potential, but currently more costly and less ready to scale up than the alternatives. While some respondents stressed the need for continued investment in e-SAF related technologies, others suggested prioritizing already available HEFA or crop-based solutions. SAF mandates show promise, but need to align around common standards Executives were positive on policy developments across the globe in 2025, including in the US; but the divergent approach introduced by multiple SAF mandates and levies with different targets, timelines, monitoring systems and sustainability standards would benefit from greater alignment across regions. This could be achieved gradually with the introduction of common sustainability standards and labels, the alignment of mandates in selected regions, and greater integration of mandates into the framework of ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Trading SAF globally could boost affordability, but local production enhances security As growing numbers of actors are exploring SAF book-and-claim mechanisms and advocating for interoperability and coordination across platforms, it may prove cheaper to produce SAF where resources are available and costs are lower, then export it across regions via a global system. Some governments have started exploring this option. However, given countries’ renewed focus on energy security and dominance, there will also be a trade-off to negotiate between sourcing the most affordable SAF and boosting local production capacity, which can unlock economic opportunities.Hybrid powertrains gain ground over hydrogen With regard to the use of hydrogen in aviation, executives have been exploring in more detail which on-the-ground airport applications, if any, could benefit from hydrogen and under which circumstances. The practical challenge is to work out where technology or cost present advantages over other powertrains. In the air, a pragmatic recalibration of hydrogen-powered aircraft is already taking place, with the emergence of more cost- competitive, hybrid powertrains that could see greater investment and easier deployment. Factors determining how optimism can translate into action Several key factors will determine the industry’s choices and direction of travel in the year ahead: the pace of technology and policy development, the intersection of SAF demand and supply, the growth in air travel and cargo both regionally and globally – and the impact of all of this on air fares. Geopolitics and wider market developments beyond aviation will also affect these trends and determine how the optimism with which the sector is entering 2026 can translate to action. Taking into consideration progress in 2025 and key challenges highlighted by industry, Figure 2 summarizes key priorities and major factors impacting sustainable aviation decisions during 2026. The figure also captures executives’ views on whether these areas of focus made positive, stable or negative progress in 2025. The following chapters examine each of these technology, policy/geopolitical, economic and wider industry trends in greater detail, drawing on survey findings, executive interviews and recent policy and market developments. Together, they highlight how decarbonization progress remains tightly interconnected and impacted by multiple factors, requiring coordinated action across technology, policy and finance to sustain momentum towards aviation’s net-zero goals.1.5 Industry priorities and trends for 2026 Multiple SAF mandates and levies with different targets, timelines, monitoring systems and sustainability standards would benefit from greater alignment across regions. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 12
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