Concerns around volatile market for SAF and technology choices This progress means that, while the price of SAF is still a concern, its availability is now perceived by the executives consulted for this report as less of an issue than it was in 2025, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, the pausing, delays or cancellations of SAF projects by various oil and gas majors in Europe and Asia Pacific27,28,29 are seen by many executives as a set-back that highlights the volatile market environment and the low production margins of SAF facilities, even when more conventional and commercial technologies such as HEFA are employed. Scepticism also remains about the feasibility of converting the entire pipeline of SAF projects, in particular of e-fuel projects, to operational plants. For HEFA, executives pointed to challenges with feedstock availability and short-term market disruptions that impact prices. While new studies have highlighted that aviation has sufficient resources to reach net zero by 2050,30 several executives engaged in Forum roundtables identified competition for feedstocks across transport and wider hard-to-abate sectors as an area of concern. Views on future of e-SAF diverge sharply For e-SAF, constraints include management of technology risk, access to competitively priced renewable electricity (especially in Europe), and uncertainty around clean hydrogen incentives and costs. These ultimately affect the price competitiveness of power-to-liquids relative to other SAF pathways, and their potential for future cost reductions. As a result, there have been calls for a more pragmatic approach to scaling-up SAF in the coming years, although with sharply diverging interpretations: –Some stakeholders argue that the current reliance on e-fuels is unrealistic and are concerned about the aviation industry’s ability to fulfil government mandates and targets post-2030, in particular for e-fuels. Hence they advocate a greater reliance on biofuels, suggesting that policy-makers delay sub- mandates for e-fuels and scrap caps on HEFA (currently in place in the EU and UK) that prevent certain feedstocks from being used for biofuels production. In December 2025, the UK government announced a call for evidence to investigate a more flexible approach to crop- based biofuels.31 –Other stakeholders, however, encourage investors to double-down on e-fuels. Acknowledging market challenges, several executives interviewed for this report called for additional government support. Practically, this could include performance guarantees for e-fuel plants32 to reduce the technology risk that e-fuel project developers and engineering contractors currently face, thereby increasing the likelihood of project financing. As a result of these diverging positions, some executives highlighted concerns around increasing polarization in the e-fuels debate in Europe. Many respondents stressed the need to avoid fragmentation and maintain targets, bringing forward additional incentives to create greater market confidence. This confidence will be needed to overcome the challenges faced by both established and novel SAF production pathways. Boosting the pipeline of projects and creating the right incentives for more SAF plants, regardless of technology, to achieve final investment decision (FID) are considered priorities for the industry. As SAF mandates ramp up more steeply post-2030, expanding SAF capacity is essential to reduce the risk of SAF demand-supply gaps in the next decade, as highlighted in Appendix 1. The next two years are critical for putting aviation on a genuinely sustainable trajectory. Synthetic aviation fuels will be central to this transition. Europe is now at the crossroads of enabling large-scale e-SAF production, creating a real opportunity to lead global aviation decarbonization. The focus must shift from climate targets to concrete investment — with the full aviation ecosystem aligned behind this effort. Tim Boeltken, CEO and Co-Founder, Ineratec Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 16