High feedstock demand and supply chain disruptions Tariffs and global policy shifts during 2025 have affected the biofuels and agriculture sectors, with implications on the production volumes, prices and trading of feedstocks used for low-carbon fuel production, including SAF. These factors have also had an impact on investments in biofuel production plants, affecting their scalability. Several industry experts interviewed for this report identified high feedstock demand and supply chain disruptions as the main reasons for the higher SAF prices seen in 2025 (see Figure 4). Last year’s Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook already referenced the sudden reduction in US imports of used cooking oil from China towards the end of 2024, following China’s removal of earlier export credits. Trade negotiations and uncertainty, combined with the updated US biofuels policy, exacerbated this trend throughout 2025, which saw imports of Chinese used cooking oil into the US down 43% in the first seven months.108 In turn, US agricultural exports to China fell by over 50% in 2025 compared to 2024; for the first time in 20 years, China stopped importing soybeans – which can be used to produce biofuels – from the US entirely.109 China shifts soybean imports from US to Latin America US soybean oil previously shipped to China could see a brighter future in the EU and Indonesia, with limited tariffs agreed as part of their respective trade deals, although the latest production trends still foresee a decline in overall production of US soybeans.110 This is despite US demand for renewable fuels remaining strong, in particular following the proposal of the Environmental Protection Agency to raise its biofuels mandate to an all-time high in 2026 (up 65% from 2025) and 2027 (up 75% from 2025), as well as the proposed reduction in credits generated from biofuels imported from abroad.111 China has turned to Argentina and other Latin American countries to supply soybean and vegetable oils, at a time when domestic biofuels mandates, beyond just aviation, are ramping up.112 Meanwhile, China has rerouted used cooking oil exports towards European SAF production – not covered by the anti-dumping tariffs introduced by the EU in 2025 on Chinese biodiesel imports.113 However, used cooking oil production in China during 2025 is expected to have slowed down by 20% compared to 2024.114 A further development on fuel feedstocks in mid- 2025 was Beijing’s introduction of 76% preliminary tariffs on canola seeds and 100% on canola oil imported from Canada. Although China had previously imported nearly two-thirds of Canada’s total canola seed exports, it introduced new anti-dumping policies to safeguard its domestic market, in response to Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.115,116 January 2026’s preliminary trade deal between Canada and China is expected to bring a relief to these trends as tariffs on canola seeds have been slashed, but structural vulnerabilities for the Canadian canola industry are expected to persist. SAF can also provide an opportunity for Canada to diversify its customer base. Since Canada cannot export its genetically modified canola seeds to Europe, converting these feedstocks into SAF is expected to become an increasingly appealing option, enabling Canada to create new market opportunities beyond China.117 Beef tallow is another feedstock for HEFA-based SAF. Brazil used to sell nearly all its export volumes of beef tallow to the US, including for renewable diesel production; but new US tariffs introduced from August 2025 heavily affected tallow flows. Since then, duty drawback mechanisms available under US regulations seem to allow companies to import tallow and claim back its duty if it is used to produce a fuel that is exported. Hence market commentators expect tallow imports into the US from Brazil to continue, while pivoting towards the production of SAF that could subsequently be exported. Demand from other markets, however, remains unclear due to immature trade channels and longer export routes.118,119 Risks rise around access to critical minerals The broad trend towards greater geoeconomic competition noted at the top of this chapter is compounded by the risk that geopolitical tensions pose to strategic resources. In the aviation context, these resources include critical minerals vital to aircraft manufacturing, such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, along with rare earth elements essential for avionics120 and other components, namely dysprosium, yttrium, terbium and samarium. The high geographical concentration of mining and processing operations for critical minerals creates significant exposure for supply chains in the event of escalating trade conflicts.3.6 Commodity and feedstock flows In 2025, for the first time in 20 years, China stopped importing soybeans – which can be used to produce biofuels – from the US entirely. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 30