Appendix 1 A longer-term look at SAF demand As set out in Chapter 2, global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production expanded in 2025 and many executives interviewed for this report are optimistic about the availability of SAF to meet mandates in the run-up to 2030. High-level market assessments show similar trends. The Forum’s report Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Case Studies and Implications for Investment, published in February 2025, predicted that SAF demand globally would surpass 17 million tonnes in 2030, when factoring in both mandates and voluntary SAF commitments from airlines. Beyond 2030, both SAF demand and supply are more uncertain. Few governments have set mandates to 2040 or 2050, and where this is the case, targets ramp up steeply. In addition, several airlines remain committed to achieving net-zero aviation by 2050 through cleaner fuels, but few have announced voluntary SAF ambitions beyond 2030. Future SAF expansion will depend on demand, incentives, technology development, feedstock availability as well as wider market conditions, as set out in the previous chapters of this report. If demand grows fast but supply cannot keep up with it, additional SAF production capacity will be needed. On the contrary, weaker demand may affect offtake certainty, and in turn the willingness of existing and prospective SAF project developers to maintain and expand the current project pipeline. The uncertain interaction between supply and demand post-2030 has prompted further investigation on future trends. This chapter, written in collaboration with HSBC*, presents three plausible SAF demand scenarios up to 2040, based on the evolution of policy as affected by the trends set out in this report. These scenarios are compared with project pipeline estimates to draw key reflections on next steps for investors and governments. For a more detailed methodology of the assumptions and data analysis in this Appendix, click here. Action is needed now to help ensure future SAF availability matches demand as mandates ramp up beyond 2030, and to accelerate the flow of private capital that can enable SAF growth. * HSBC contributed Appendix 1 . However, the views and recommendations in this appendix are conceptual in nature and should not be construed as HSBC making any funding, investment or participation commitments in relation to the recommendations included therein. Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 49